Wind chill advisories and warnings are out for today into tomorrow over a large part of the Hoosier state. The coldest part of this arctic air mass will settle in over the region today and high pressure passes by to the south. Temperatures will fail to make it out of the single digits in a lot of places, and if they do, we still will do no better than the teens in many of those places, even in southern Indiana. Winds will average 10-20 mph, creating well below normal wind chills through the day. The cold air arrival will also wring out some snows in some areas. Most of the best snow squalls will be in the northern quarter of the state, as lake enhancement will provide some extra moisture. Farther south, we should see only clouds, and even those can break up easily as the day moves on.
The rest of the week will feature minor rebounds in temperatures, although we really won’t see an expansion back closer to normal until next week. The week will finish dry and the weekend stays dry, although the latest European model hints at a bit of lake driven snow sneaking into the northern tier counties overnight Thursday night into Friday. We think that is probably just a bit overdone, and the snows will mostly stay into MI. See Map at right.
Our early next week system is expanding north just a bit, now bringing some quarter inch liquid equivalents into central Indiana from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. Temps will be key here. Right now, we see daytime highs still below normal for Monday and Tuesday in the upper 20s. That would signal more snow than rain, especially with any precipitation that lingers through the nighttime hours. Stay tuned for more updates on this event after this morning’s model runs complete. This may be a very interesting event. Temps do not get above freezing until sometime late next week, and even then it could be a struggle. We feel the American model (GFS) is a little overdone on warming…and we like a solution about 5 degrees under its current guidance. That would keep temps below normal through most of next week.
Longer term, models keep a nice system fro the 18th-20th. Half to 1.5” water equivalent precipitation is still likely out of this event with coverage at nearly 100% of the state. Current guidance suggests mostly rain ending as snow…but if our overall pattern thoughts hold…we think we can be dangerously close to heavy snow out of this system. As we said yesterday…time will tell. Following that system, we look for temps to take another dive…and finish the month well below normal.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Good rains stated in Argentina yesterday, and the front will continue to move north. We see no need to alter our thinking of 2-4 inch rain totals combined over the next 2 weeks. The next system hits Sunday through Tuesday, and the third toward the 20th. Temps look good. We did hear some reports of dryness in southern Cordoba…and there may be some areas that have been missed there in the past 2-3 weeks…but the rains over the region through the next two weeks should alleviate any fears of prolonged dryness in That part of the country. There are still several weeks to go before we get into heavy pollination for Corn in the southern part of Argentina’s Corn Belt (southern Cordoba would be the equivalent of southern Minnesota here) Temps remain warm, but not overly warm
Corn areas in southern Brazil will pick up some rains in the next week to 10 days, with 1-2 inches still possible from Rio Grande do Sul (RDGS) up through southern Paraná. Farther north, corn areas will be a bit dry through the 17th with only scattered showers. There we can see up to half an inch combined, but only with 40-50% coverage. Models seem to want to back away from heavier rains with a front around the 18th…but the front is still there. We will need to watch temps in northern corn areas in Brazil through the next two weeks, and we can see some heat building in from Minas Gerais up into Bahia.
Corn Belt in the US will be cold and dry through the weekend, getting closer to, but still staying below normal next week. Southern corn belt precipitation brings quarter to half inch totals to Areas from I-70 southward Monday and Tuesday of next week…with rains along and south of the OH river and MO river, and snow potential farther north. Potential still exists for moderate to heavy rains around the 18th-20th over 70% of the Corn Belt, with areas north of I-80 the most likely to get missed. Arctic air continues to steamroll in over the northern half of the Corn Belt and upper Midwest, even while south winds try and buffet temps a bit in the southwest.
Heat stress continues to be a storyline in Brazil soy areas, but so far, we have not heard any serious reports of issues or damage. Over the next 8 days we will see temps hold in the 90s with a few pushes into triple digits, but so far, we have stayed away from super excessive heat inland…most of that has been found closer the coast, where soybeans and other crops generally are not grown. Farther west, normal to slightly warm temps are being found. We like scattered showers with only 40% coverage from now through the 17th. Rain totals will be in the quarter to 2/3rds range with a few isolated higher amoutns due to thunderstorms. This is a somewhat typical corn belt pattern where heat and humidity will keep thunderstorms and showers around in our summers, but where we also hear lots of complaints about being missed. The front for late in the period on the 18th and later still has potential, but is not as strong as a it was shown over the weekend.
In the US, it is east vs. west…as temps in the west will try and moderate and end up yielding big swings, while temps in the east are slower to rise. The main problem with warming and cool down is likely snowmelt. There will not be any significant precip or snow producing systems between now and the 17th. That system on the 17th can bring big rains to the eastern third of HRW areas, but it will need to dig and tap into a better moisture source to bring rain or snow farther west. Temps next week look to be near or above normal in HRW areas.
SRW areas will take longer to move out of the extreme cold. WE finally will push above freezing in some SRW areas late this weekend and early next week, but northern SRW can stay below normal through at least midweek next week. However…with the snows that have fallen…we see no major threat to SRW on a grand scale…even given our temperature expectations over the next 72 hours. The crop is mostly healthy…and should withstand the cold just fine.
FSU/Black Sea wheat areas are benign. Cold air hits next week…but is not out of the realm of normal for this time of year. We still expect decent precipitation in the next two weeks, and reports of adequate snow cover are coming in.