Low key and boring weather for most of this week as we see a slight pull back in clipper systems. Temps this weekend actually were able to exceed my expectations over the northern third of the state, and we ended up with much greater snow melt than what I thought we would see. Temps move up and down quite a bit through the rest of this week, but will average nearly normal to slightly above normal when you take the warm days and the cold days and average them out. Temps cool today behind the front that worked in last night, stay slightly below normal tomorrow. Then we warm for Wednesday ahead of our Next front, cooling off for Thursday and Friday. The front for Thursday does not look impressive…mostly clouds and a bit of light rain/drizzle. Moisture totals are under a tenth of an inch, most likely a few hundredths.
The next good rain maker pushes in for early next week. WE see a nice low coming together, sweeping in from the NW, while moisture pulls in from the south. This should put .2”-.5” moisture totals in over a large part of the state from Monday night through Tuesday the 17th. There is potential for more, but models right now have the heaviest rains just south of the OH River. We think there is potential for this system to come together like what we saw a week ago Sunday, and produce some moderate to heavy accumulating snows. But…there is plenty of time for this thing to develop…we just need to watch it.
The flow direction with that system would indicate that we see a significant move back to below normal temps for the latter part of February. This will also lend itself to more active storm tracks from the NW into the state…more clippers, if you will. So, we look for the wild February ride to continue…even though we may end up getting lulled to sleep this week.
Great rains over Argentina corn areas yesterday, and we have another 1-2 inch batch coming for tomorrow with coverage at 80%. Dry through the rest of the week. A minor front sweeps through slowly from Sunday through next Tuesday and can produce .33”-.75” rains, coverage around 60%. Then dry with strong high pressure to finish the forecast period into the 23rd-24th.
Heavier rains park over south and southeast Brazil a bit more this week. The front that comes out of Argentina on Tuesday takes all the way through Friday to lift up into Parana and Matto Grosso do Sul. This should promote better rains of half to 2 inches over 80% of southeast Brazil, and there will be a few areas that get higher amounts. That front may stall over the same basic area through most of next week too, meaning all Brazil first crop corn areas will be getting abundant to perhaps excess rains.
The US Corn Belt is a non issue this week, with temps swinging back and forth from above normal to below. We see a definite trend toward below normal temps toward the latter part of the week, especially over the western Corn Belt and then moving east. The next good precipitation outbreak hits for Monday-Wednesday of next week, where can see liquid potential of up to three quarters of an inch, mostly in the west and southwest corn belt. However, we think that there is good potential for that moisture to expand northeast and bring some of the better amounts up into central IL and central IN as well.
We see a frontal boundary stalling over parts of Brazil as we go from later this week through next week. This can promote moderate to excessive rains from Parana across into southern Matto Grosso do Sul Paraguay and a bit into and southern Matto Grosso. The heaviest rains will be in that line, but we look for off shoots to work through the rest of Brazil bean areas as well. Areas that are most likely to be missed are in northern Goias and southern Tocantins. So…scope of the heaviest rains will need to be watched over the next two weeks to gauge if there will be any harvest delay. We think chances are low/minor right now…but one can’t argue with the way the 10day precipitation map looks.
Well above normal temps for the HRW belt over the weekend, and we continue with moderate to warm temps through the first half of this week. We do not see any significant moisture until late in the weekend and early next week, even that may try and miss a large part of the area. Higher temps means higher evaporation rates for the soil profile out in these areas. WE do look for a pull back in temps later this week, although it is not as strong as what models were trying to show late week for this time period.
SRW areas saw some serious snow melt in spots, and there is plenty of water available. No significant precipitation in for this week. Temps will be dancing on either side of normal. Good rain/snow potential early next week, with rains over 1 inch possible south of the OH River, up to half-three quarters of an inch farther north.
A much drier look for Russia and FSU areas as we start this week. An active storm track continues in extreme southern parts of the southern region for Russia, but nearly everyone else gets missed. The 10 day map shows that very little moisture will bee seen in Ukraine, the central Region, the Volga region in Russia and eve most of Kazakhstan gets missed. Temps look to shift below normal, but we may be able to stave off the big arctic push this week, as massive high pressure stays north.