Drier weather settles in over the next two days, although we will have to deal with some serious fog, especially in central and southern Indiana where we saw slow moving light rain action yesterday. Temps will gain another 408 degrees today and tomorrow over what we have seen this week so far, and will continue to accelerate remaining snow melt state wide.
The next batch of precipitation will work in tomorrow night through Friday, with moisture coming up from the southwest very similar to what happened yesterday. This time, though, we will see better coverage, with up to 70% of the state now looking like we will see light rain, and about half of the state can see rain totals over half an inch. Overall totals will range from a tenth to .8”. The heaviest rains will fall south and east of a line from Fort Wayne to Terre Haute.
Models are not in very good agreement for the start of next week. The American Model keeps warm, dry air in play and tries to keep temps above normal, while the European model brings colder air in and has a system come in from the NW. That system would mostly miss the state, but still could bring scattered light rain showers to the northern third of the state. We think that the true solution lies somewhere in-between…not as cold as the European, but nowhere near as warm as the GFS model. And, we do look for some very minor precipitation for Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Colder air comes for the later part of next week. Temps will revert to 3-5 degrees below normal, and will likely stay in that range through the end of the month. But…keep in mind that temps will be in the 50s for normal highs by the end of the month, even lower 60s in the lower part of the state…so below normal air does not mean quite as much going from here forward.
A very active pattern is in store for the 20th-25th, with several more rain laden systems moving in. The first, for the 20th looks to have quarter to .4” rains with it, and should give coverage at 80% of the state. The other systems still look to have a SW track/origin. We look for the state to finish the month of March closer to normal, but there will be a bias in the moisture to the southern half to third of the state, and we will be much drier in the northern third.
Argentina sees a front move through late this week through the weekend that brings half to 1 inch rains to 70% of corn areas, and then a front stalls late next week over southern Cordoba and southern Buenos Aires province. That front can bring an other half to 1 inch. Mostly dry for the rest of the period.
A drier trend has started to emerge over southern Matto Grosso do Sul, Parana and areas down through RGDS. This dry trend holds until late next Monday and Tuesday, when showers and storms are back and can bring half to 1 inch rain totals.
South and eastern parts of the US corn belt are in line to get some rains off an on over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. IN, OH, KY, along with southern IL and southern MO will see half to 2 inch rains. Farther north and west, very little moisture is coming in over the short haul. Temps will be 10-20 degrees above normal through the end of the week, but then closer to normal next week. Snowmelt can provide anywhere from 1-3 inches of water for the rest of the week, which will be needed in western parts of the Corn Belt where rains miss.
A slow moving frontal complex moves across Brazil soy areas through the rest of the week, with the highest frequency rains coming from late tonight through Saturday. In this timeframe, we can see quarter to half inch totals each day, and the next 7 days can see rain totals at or above 2 inches. We should see a drier pattern emerge starting Sunday and continuing most of next week, with the exception being western Matto Grosso…scattered to spotty rains may hang around locally through the week next week, but will not be part of a bigger pattern.
Heavy rains are still a concern here in the Deep South as we move toward planting of early beans here in a few weeks. The first big batch of rain is done, but we see two more systems in the next 10 days that come through, and they can bring another 1-3 inches of rain for the period. We also are trending toward a continuation of the wet pattern for the 11-16 day period.
No change in the overall pattern. Most of HRW areas are warm and dry through the next 10 days, and the next good chance of precipitation may not develop until closer to the 20th. However, in east TX and OK, we do see heavier rains in the short term with 3 systems between now and the 19th. This will help east and southeast HRW areas.
SRW areas continue to be divided north from south. Northern areas see combined 10 day rains from a tenth to half an inch. Southern SRW areas will be more in the half to 2 inch range. Temps above normal this week. Near normal next week, below normal after the 19th.
Ukraine sees 10 day rain totals from half to 1 inch. Farther east, other parts of Western Russia and FSU areas are seeing lesser amounts. The totals are similar to what we saw yesterday, but we are seeing rains hold together better coming out of Eastern Europe as they come into Ukraine. This gradual shift in pattern should bring slightly better rains eventually into Russian growing regions, but for now, we keep them drier at half an inch or less for the entire 10 day period. Kazakhstan also looks to stay dry, especially in the west. Temps well above normal.
In Australia, models suggest slightly better rains in Western Australia, but lesser rains in NSW over the 10 day period. In general, the changes are not enough for us to change our forecast, and the trend is still drier than we would like as we move toward planting in a few weeks.
Normal to above normal temps for most cattle areas this week and next Heavy rains miss beef production areas in the central plains, but may impact feedyards in east Texas. Dairy areas stay dry, but warmer than normal.
No major issues in hog areas, although we will see more moisture over OH valley areas in the next 10 days. Large snow melt equals mud…but not enough to make major headlines, as the bulk of hog areas had been drier than normal going into the heavy snows, and the soil profile will soak up moisture readily.