After a very mild day today, we will see a cooler, yet mostly dry week for the Hoosier state the rest of this week. Today will feature one more day of very strong southerly wind flow into the eastern Corn Belt. This should push temps into the upper 60s and 70s statewide. However, a Canadian cold front, the same one we have been talking about since early last week, will move through overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring a sense of reality back to our weather picture.
Normally, on a big shift in temperature like this, we would expect a least a little moisture to accompany the changeover. But, this time around, the low that the front is attached to stays well to the north, moving over central Ontario into Quebec, and that means that moisture will have trouble getting going any farther south that Michigan and Wisconsin. So…while there will be plenty of clouds around overnight tonight and through tomorrow, it is doubtful in our minds that much happens, and if there is something that pops up…it will be limited to spits and sprinkles over the northern tier counties of the state.
The rest of the week looks dry as the cooler air comes in. however, we really only look for temps to revert to normal and perhaps up to 5-7 degrees below normal for the rest of the week. That means we still should see mostly 40s and 50s statewide, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. The coolest day may end up being Friday (by a degree or two) although pretty much every day between tomorrow and Saturday looks to be pretty similar. There still should be decent sunshine for most of the week.
A minor system passes by south of the state Thursday into Friday, and it may throw a few more clouds our way however, precipitation should be looked at in much the same way we are looking at action to the north overnight tonight into tomorrow…It just likely wont get here, and if it does, it will be very, very minor stuff over the counties along the river.
Next week a strong system works in from the southwest for Monday night through Tuesday. This will bring .2”-.6” rains to about 60% of the state, with the best coverage skewed over the southern half of the state. This still brings warmer air in for the rest of next week, taking temps back to near normal for the week. This also may be the first in a series of systems to finish the month and move into early April. Long range models also show another strong system around the 26th-27th that may have up to an inch or moisture, another quick moving system around the 30th-31st, and then a stronger low around the 2nd-3rd. Now…there is a lot of disagreement among models right now too…the ones that show more action in the extended period do not have much moisture early next week….and vice versa. So, stay tuned. For right now, we like the solution s that brings moisture in next week…although timing may be tweaked just a bit in the days ahead.
Dry through most of this week in Argentina, with the next good front sweeping through corn production areas toward the end of the week and weekend. That front can produce up to 1 inch of rain with coverage at 70%. Next week looks dry again. Temps this week will be warm with low to mid 90s expected. However, triple digit temps should stay just outside the most dense crop production areas. Next week temps revert back to normal.
Brazil first crop corn areas get a minor front to work through between today and midweek. Moisture is not overly impressive, but there will be showers and storms around, with totals combining to reach almost an inch in some spots. Generally, though, action will be half an inch or less. 2nd crop corn areas see scattered showers with no real regularity over the next 10 days. These will be more heat based, and will have nit and miss characteristics…but overall, look for 10 day rain totals in Safrina corn areas to be between half and 2 inches.
After a big mild push over the Corn Belt, temps revert to normal and a bit below normal levels this week. Expect a move closer to normal next week. The region still looks mostly dry, with the best precipitation potential this week from northern MN across the Great Lakes, and next week’s action coming into the extreme southern most part of the Corn Belt. So…the outlook for below normal precipitation continues. Models are in major disagreement over the 11-16 day forecast period. The American model says wetter, the European not so much.
China sees moderate to heavy rains continuing over the southern third of their corn and soybean belt. But, over the northern two thirds of the grain region, we see little to no rains in the through at least the next 10 days. These are areas that are trending a bit above normal on temps as well, so there are likely some producers getting the itch over there, but also looking at lot of concern over the continuing dry pattern.
Brazil soybean areas look to see mostly hit and miss moisture over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. 10 day precipitation maps point to rain totals from half to 2”. However, there really is no good frontal organization in that time frame…leading to less confidence in who gets moisture and who does not. Most of the action over the next 10 days looks to be slightly better concentrated over Matto Grosso, with less frequency and intensity of showers and storms eastward over Goias, Minas Gerais and southern Bahia. Temps look to stay near normal but may shift to slightly above over Matto Grosso and Matto Grosso do Sul.
The main precipitation track over the next 10 days still seems to favor action in the Deep South and into eastern TX. Already complaints regarding some corn and bean planting delays have been heard in TX. While this is not a major story yet, another quarter to three quarters of an inch at midweek this week, followed by 1-2.5 inches of rain early next week will keep excessive moisture in our first planted soy areas of the US (LA, MS, AR) top of mind.
Dry this week in HRW areas, and, while temps fall off a bit, we still look for normal to above normal temps for most of the week. Models have not completely given up on a system for late this week and the weekend, keeping quarter to half inch rain totals in over KS and OK, and they still include western KS and the OK/TX panhandles. We will be more excited about this once we get a couple of days closer and a model consensus still has that much moisture around…right now we just don’t want to get the ol’ hopes up. Longer term, a good front does bring much better moisture through from Sunday night through Monday of next week, with .25”-1” potential, coverage at 80%. Drier and warmer in the wake of that system.
Southern SRW areas get a few tenths of moisture at midweek this week, but northern areas do not. Early next week, all SRW areas can get .25”-.75” rain totals with coverage at 90%. Temps cool off this week, but will be limited to about 5-10 degrees below normal on both highs and lows. Temps Tuesday through Friday will be very similar day to day.
Good news/bad news for FSU and Russian wheat areas. The good news is that that there is better coverage of at least some moisture over the next 10 days. The bad news is that the moisture totals have dropped some in places like Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region. The heavy rain totals have shifted south over Turkey and into the Middle East. But, there still is decent coverage of at least minor moisture over grain areas through the end of the month.
Moisture in Australia continues to just skirt the outer rim of most of the country’s wheat acres. The latest 10 day map shows slightly better coverage of up to half an inch in NSW, but its only fractionally better coverage. All told, we would really like to see better frontal action develop sometime in the next 2-3 weeks…and in order to do that, we will need a large blocking high to weaken slightly.
So far, not a lot of mud in western beef production areas, but a front early next week that can produce up to an inch of rain or more may change that. Temps will remain above normal. Dairy areas see temps revert to normal, but we will remain dry over most of the northern dairy areas through the next 10 days, and potentially the rest of the month.
No major weather headlines for hogs…temps near normal, perhaps a little dry. But nothing that produces a big impact.