Moisture over the northern third of the state was impressive yesterday…much better than I had looked for. I will stand up and take the blame on that one…sometimes Mother Nature can throw you a curve…and this time around the curve was a little more moisture than I was looking for, and a very impressive conversion ratio of that moisture into wet snow. It stuck, and stuck nicely over the northern third of the state. As much grumbling as we did yesterday about it…it will all be gone by noon today…for the most part, as temps climb.
We still have 2 more little waves that move through before we get to Friday. Today should be a bit of a rest day, as our next system slowly ejects out of the MO valley. By midnight tonight, we look for action to push into western Indiana, and move over most of the state through the day tomorrow. The low takes a track from just north of STL to Chicago…and will keep its best moisture over central and northern Indiana. We look for up to half an inch through the day tomorrow from I-70 northward, perhaps a tenth or two farther south. Temps will be quite mild as the action moves in, such that I would not be surprised to see or hear a thunderstorm early Wednesday morning over north central or northwest Indiana, closer to where the low is at.
Colder air pushes into the state from the NW Thursday, but we still have another wave of precipitation coming up that cold front as it advances. This wave of moisture is a bit farther south this go round…and will promote the best moisture over the southern half to third of the state. We can see .25”-.75” rain totals there, and little to no action over the northern third. Combined, these two waves will put state wide rain coverage at half to 1 inch with coverage at 90%…and that does not include the moisture locked up in the snow fall up north (and minor rains farther south) yesterday.
Temps drop dramatically to finish the week. We look for Friday to be every bit as cold if not colder than what we saw yesterday. And it will be a slow rebound. A weak Great Lakes wave pushes through on Sunday, but still does not look to be a big issue. The next good system to move in is on track for midweek next week…an April fools day system. We look for .2” to .9” rains over the state with 80% coverage. And then another cold blast to follow…perhaps equaling what we see this Friday.
The extended period has an Easter weekend front that can bring half an inch of moisture, although models are arguing on whether it comes Saturday or Sunday afternoon. Either way, it will have its heaviest moisture over the Deep South (2-3 inches) and the heaviest moisture in the state closer to the OH River. Behind it, the GFS calls for one more massive cold blast for the 8th-10th. Then we are seeing signs that we could get a very stormy pattern toward mid April. That stormy pattern may not deliver lots of rain…but still could be fun.
Models went a little wetter for the US Corn Belt yesterday and continue to stay that course this morning. A strong storm complex has exited the central plains this morning and we see good moisture over MO, even a few thunderstorms up into eastern NE. This complex will move northeast, with the low eventually moving from just north of STL to Chicago. This will move the best rains from MO across IL and IA, eventually pushing into IN overnight tonight. As a cold front brings much colder air in from the NW, a second wave of moisture moves up the front Thursday, bring heavy rains out of MO across southern IL and up the OH River Valley. All told, the central and eastern Corn Belt areas can see half to 1 inch of rain (perhaps a bit more) with 90% coverage. Now, the upper Midwest and northwestern part of the Corn Belt will miss out on this good precipitation. The rains will be enough to bring monthly rain fall totals out of the bottom 3-5 in history…but still, we will be below normal for the month. Cold air peaks again on Friday (perhaps as cold as yesterday). Then another system hits for midweek next week. We also see some moisture for Easter weekend, and then a strong storm around the 7th. Another major cold blast is likely late next week and perhaps the week of the 6th. But, then we see a major expansion of the ridge over the plains…and that hints at warming and perhaps an active, stormy pattern for mid April.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms around in Argentina through tomorrow, then dry through the weekend. Scattered showers return early next week for a few days, mostly over extreme northern areas. In general, the action is not related to any major frontal activity. This will lend itself to move to a drier pattern, although we admit, in areas where these showers set up…it will not seem like a drier pattern. The best action is going to be over the northern half of the corn region through the next 10 days.
This week is pretty benign in southeast Brazil…a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. But, next week looks very impressive, as a large batch of rain moves out of Paraguay and northern Argentina into southern Brazil. That batch of moisture can produce 1-2 inch rain fall totals for the 30th and 31st very easily. Another 1-2 inch rain maker moves into Matto Grosso do Sul around midweek next week…so we are moving back to a wetter pattern in south and southeast Brazil corn areas. Temps remain near normal
This week is pretty dry and boring over most of China, with only a few smaller waves of showers popping up over the southern third of the Corn Belt. Over the weekend south China gets active with a nice push of half to three quarter inch rains. But, of most interest to us is a northern feature that forms over Mongolia and pushes east. This system can bring half to three quarter inch rains to about 40% of the extreme northern wheat and coarse grain areas early next week, and then it may plant seeds for a second system that may be able to hit about 60% of the northern half of the corn and soy belt from midweek next wee on through the 3rd. If it is able to come together, this may be the best chance of action these growing regions have seen in several weeks.
The Lower Delta gets a bit of a break in the days ahead. The next two waves to cross the Mississippi have shifted to take more of a northerly track. This means that meaningful moisture will mostly miss the wettest parts of the Deep South. We look for no more than a few tenths here the rest of this week. Next week, however, a strong low moves along the gulf coast and will then push inland over AL/GA. This will bring half to 2 inch rains to the region again. So…there is an ever so slight window of opportunity for field work…but we may not be able to dry down fast enough to utilize it.
No real change in pattern for Brazil soy areas. We have moisture that will be around. 10 day totals are in the 1-2 inch range. Coverage is good. There are not any significant fronts…this is just typical Brazil moisture. And…we are to the point where it is not as big of a story now, with the focus shifting to other parts of the world.
A surprising push of thunderstorms overnight in parts of eastern KS. These storms did have some heavier rains. Now, these rains were highly localized…but the fact they were able to develop out of a rather mundane and moisture starved (in that area) system has to be taken as a good thing. A final low will move across OK tomorrow into early Thursday and that can trigger one more batch of thunderstorms, but most of that will be from Lawton OK up through Joplin MO. This will spread some action into southeast KS, but miss a large part of the HRW belt north of the KS/OK line. From there, the forecast pattern settles back into dryness. Other than a few spits and sprinkles on occasion that are not frontal boundary related, we do not see any moisture until around the 1st, with a system coming together over SD and a front sweeping back through the central plains. That front can trigger moisture up to half an inch and coverage at 40%. Farther north, the Dakotas can get .25” to 1.25” rain totals with coverage at 60%. Temps will be above normal in the southern and central plains, but normal to below normal in the northern plains.
SRW areas get nice rains over the next 2-3 days. WE look for half to 1.5” rain totals with coverage at nearly 90%. Temperatures do big swings on at least 2 occasions through the next 10 days. Those two swings will produce temps well below normal. Another strong system can work in toward the middle of next week, and then one from Easter weekend into early the following week
Moisture continues to get better in Eastern Europe, and therefore we are seeing better rains moving into western parts of Russia and FSU countries. Ukraine in particular looks good, with 10 day rain totals now pushing 1-1.5”However, there still is a big hole with no moisture over western Kazakhstan, and only a few hundredths in the Volga Region. So…we still have some problems in this part of the world. Systems look to move out of Eastern Europe over the next two weeks and then fall apart over the Russian mainland. .
Excellent rains continue to develop in Western Australia on the models. Strong high pressure keeps most wheat areas dry this week, but next week, a system dives south across Western Australia and can produce half to 3 inch rain fall totals. The track of the system puts it on course to hit all wheat acres in Western Australia. Other wheat regions do not have the luck this time around…as moisture looks limited in NSW, Victoria and South Australia. Temperatures look to be normal to above normal over most wheat areas in the weeks ahead, although the heavy rains in WA will take temps below normal from Tuesday of next week on through Friday.
A lot of dryness in cattle areas in the weeks ahead. Systems seem to stay either east of major beef feedlot areas in the central plains or south of the big dairy areas of the Upper Midwest. WE may hear some concerns over the start to the hay season in some of these areas. Big temp swings are coming for dairy areas in the north…with well below normal temps likely on several occasions through at least the 8th. Well above normal temps in beef production areas continue.
Some large scale rains in North Carolina will bring 2-3 inches of rain or more to Hog production areas in that part of the country next week. General sloppiness will ensue, but the rains should not have a major impact outside of localized flooding.