It’s the winter that just won’t die!! Cold, Canadian air parks over the Hoosier state today…and it will make its presence known. We could be looking at record or near record low maximums for the day today over a large part of the state. Over the northern third, it may be a struggle for daytime highs to surpass freezing. But…they likely do or get closes before all is said and done. Cold air holds tomorrow as well, but likely will not be as bad. We finally push back into the 40s and 50s on Sunday, but even that will still be below normal. One good thing….we will stay dry, and we should see decent sun in spite of the cold air.
We continue to keep an eye out for some minor moisture moving over the northern part of the state Sunday night and then spreading south by Monday morning as a weak wave passes over the great lakes. It will not be significant…a few hundredths of an inch to about 3 tenths. Coverage looks a little better at this time, and may push 60% of the state.
Our next good front still is on track for midweek, with rain arriving later Wednesday afternoon and pushing across the state into early Thursday. We look for .1”-.3” total accumulation, and coverage will be about 70%. We follow that up with a stronger low passing by to the north and west to finish the week on Friday. That will put up to an inch or rain in over IA and parts of IL, but here we see .25-.9” from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. All rain, and gusty winds likely. It will not be the best set up for Easter festivities on Saturday. However, Easter Sunday morning should be sunny. Breezy and cool, but at least it should be clearing.
Longer term, the GFS model shows another major system for the 7th-8th that brings half to 1 inch rain potential, and another cool push behind that system. But…we do see a drier pattern setting up farther upstream…meaning that we might tone the moisture down a bit as we move toward mid month.
Today should be the apex of the cold air over the US Corn belt, with temps struggling to get past freezing over a good chunk of the great lakes area at least. Today could be a day where we set or challenge record low maximums for a large part of the Corn Belt. We follow it up with more cold air tomorrow…only slightly better, and then finally bounce out for Sunday. Even still, the region will be mostly normal to below normal through next week. Plenty of moisture is coming as well, with systems for Sunday night into Monday morning, next Wednesday, and then late Good Friday into Saturday. We also see a strong system for the week following Easter. Most of the Corn Belt will pick up moisture from at least one of these events, and we look for combined 10 day totals to be between half and 1 inch conservatively…and we think some areas will do much, much better.
No change in Argentina moisture from now through Easter. We continue to see this as a north vs. south affair, with scattered showers and thunderstorms more numerous over the northern half to two thirds of the growing areas. Meanwhile, to the south we see nearly no rain. Temps are above normal. We will leave moisture totals for the heavy rain areas can at half to 1.25” and the drier areas will see nothing to about .25”
Southern Brazil will be wet over the coming 2 week period, with a least 2 strong fronts working in. We see rain totals from RDGS through Paraná averaging 1-2.5” through April 6th. Matto Grosso do Sul may lag behind just a bit, but the second front there brings better rains. Temps nearly normal
While a large part of China’s corn and soy areas stay dry at the beginning of the period, we see a big increase in action starting midweek next week and going through the end of the period. Two stronger fronts for later next week and into the week following can bring rains of up to 2 inches (combined total) over about 70% of key growing regions only far northern wheat areas will be missed by the biggest rains…and even there we see rains of up to half an inch. We would love to show you the European model maps of the good rains in China (and Australia for that matter, see below) but new licensing conditions on those models require us to not reproduce (you know, like the NFL does with their games…you can see them in person, but don’t you dare tape them to show anybody else)
Occasional rains over the Deep South through next week mean that we will have to work around additional moisture. We see rains moving through Monday, Tuesday night-Wednesday, Thursday night and then next Saturday. Combined totals will come in at half to 1.25” and coverage at 80%. Two strong pushes of cool, high pressure will be in this weekend, and then for the end of next weekend and the start of the next week. It might be tough to see a bunch of planting progress next week.
Scattered rains continue off an on through Brazil soybean areas over the next two weeks. 10 day rain totals look similar to previous days, with 1-2 combined totals. There really is no change in the overall pattern from Matto Grosso over through Bahia.
No rain in any part of HRW country through next Tuesday. By next Wednesday we will see some thunderstorm development over TX and southern OK. Wednesday night into Thursday a front sweeps through the central plains and will trigger some showers and storms over KS, NE and OK. Right now it looks like the western extent of these storms will be a little better, with action getting into parts of Western KS and the OK panhandle. We look for quarter to 1 inch rains with coverage at 60% at this time, with eastern CO and extreme western KS at the most risk of missing out. Another strong thunderstorm cluster can break out Thursday night through Friday between I-80 and I-70…it could promote some 1-2 inch rains and we would need to look for severe weather.
Dry and very cold over most SRW areas today. Temps begin to moderate Sunday. The next rains for the region hit Sunday night and Monday…and then we see several more waves of moisture coming next week. Temps overnight tonight may be interesting, as areas will dive well below freezing…some parts of Northern Indiana and NW OH can be in the middle teens. While wheat may not be completely awake yet in these areas, it is still uncovered…and these temps are not going to be overly friendly. Good moisture potential next week, though, with rain totals potentially up to 1 inch in spots.
The pattern in Western Russia/Eastern Europe shows moisture spreading eastward over time, as the wetter weather in Eastern Europe is able to make progress pushing east. There still are some pretty big dry holes on the 10day total precipitation maps, but they are limited mostly to the Volga region and Kazakhstan. Ukraine and western FSU countries now can see up to 1.5-2” of rain between now and Easter Sunday…mostly in nice chunks from a front next week. .
Rains look even better for Australian Wheat as well. We are starting to see the pattern bring moisture slightly farther north over the continent…and that is bringing good rains over the next 2 weeks to almost all wheat areas. The best moisture is back loaded in the period, meaning we will not see these rains kick in until later next week (especially in the east) but they should ease dryness concerns as the relate to winter wheat planting, which will kick off in a few weeks.