Not a lot to say this morning.
Warmer air is coming. At first it will be a slow go, due to the snow on the ground acting like a nice refrigerator. But, by the end of the weekend, we will see a lot of that snow gone. Temps will transition to near normal over the weekend which will put highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Then by midweek next week we wills see temps well above normal, in the 50s and lower 60s. Rapid snow melt will make for a sloppy mess, but sunshine should be abundant.
We may need to watch for a minor disturbance passing by to the north Sunday night and early Monday along with a weak low passing south of the state at the same time. But, for right now we are keeping most of the Hoosier state dry. Clouds will be the biggest factor to watch for.
Dry most of next week until we get into Friday. Models are at odds over when the next significant push of rain comes…the European says Friday into Saturday we can see some rains, potentially from a quarter to three quarters of an inch. The GFS pushes it back a day or two, but has monster rains in the 1-2 inch range. Both models agree that we can see some decent cold air in behind the system, but they differ in the magnitude and the duration. We look for that to come into sharper focus next week. In any case, the pattern does look to get pretty active after this warm air surge, with systems potentially every 2-3 days. They may not be big (outside of the first one) but they will have a good moisture source in the Gulf of Mexico. Look for temps to be normal to below normal from the 16th through the end of the month.
Dry high pressure is in play now over most of Argentina. Temps nearly normal. No frontal boundary activity until we get closer to the end of next week.
Significant moisture will pop up each afternoon now through the weekend in southeast Brazil, initially from northern RGDS up through Sao Paulo, but by late in the weekend it will have expanded west to include Matto Grosso do Sul. Through the next 4 days, rains in this region can be between half and 2 inches. A strong low then develops early nest week off the Santa Catarina Coast, and will throw more moisture in, but it will be farther north, from Parana through Sao Paulo, and up into southern Minas Gerais through late Tuesday. Then, from midweek through the following weekend, south and southeast Brazil should be mostly dry. Temps normal to slightly above.
Dry with moderating temps over most of the US Corn Belt from here through most of next week. The next system to work into the Corn Belt will be a surge of moisture out of the Deep South late next Friday into Saturday, which comes into the eastern Corn Belt. Much colder air comes in behind that system, but models are split as to the timing…the US model brings it sooner and colder, the international models not as cold, but for a longer duration.
Initially Brazil soybean areas will see nothing more than hit and miss showers through this weekend. But, the strong low that spins off the Santa Catarina coast next week will drive a slow moving front through soybean areas from late Monday through Thursday. Rains in that time frame range from half to 3 inches, coverage at around 80%. Late in the week next week the scattered moisture should be north of the region, and most bean areas will be drier again, allowing for harvest to pick back up. Temps for the next 10 days generally look to be around normal. IF we had to skew them, we would put the northern half of Brazil crop areas at normal to slightly above, and southern areas mostly a bit below normal.
Warm and dry with a massive push of southern air coming in over HRW areas through this weekend and next week. Colder air looks a little more impressive for next weekend and into the following week, but moisture does not seem to want to accompany the colder surge just yet. We think the moisture is there, but it will take a better developed front to produce useable rains.
Lots of snow melt over SRW areas over the next 5-7 days. Melt will start slow. Today it will be very cold over the entire SRW region, with temps building to near normal over the weekend. The best warmth comes next week. Heavy rains are possible toward the end of next week. .
No change in Russia and FSU areas. Yesterday we saw better rains developing in eastern Ukraine…and models still show that today. However the 10 day precipitation map also shows a big hold remaining over the heart of Russian production areas and Kazakhstan. So, there is no reason to remove concern from our minds over Russian wheat. Temps are nearly normal now, and look to cool in the week ahead.
Australia’s short term pattern continues to be dry, and we still see a strong blocking high keeping most moisture at bay through at least midweek next week. Systems after that will generally be mostly south over southern Victoria…missing most of the biggest wheat areas.
Cold air will be a big story for about 2 more days both for beef production areas and big dairy areas. However, from here we do see some moderation to finish the week and for next week. A big cool down is likely after the 17th-18th…but it will not be as extreme. Weather over the next few weeks should have less of an impact on rates of gain and milk production.
Bitter cold air for another few days, but generally speaking, we see little impact on Hog production by the weather in the coming weeks. There can be some transportation issues for a few days along and south of the OH valley as today’s snow event hammers those areas, but the areas with the highest concentration of hog production should not see significant weather related issues.