U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected slightly higher with small increases forecast for corn and sorghum production and higher projected corn imports. Forecast corn production for 2012/13 is raised 19 million bushels with a 0.3-bushel increase in the corn yield to 122.3 bushels per acre. Sorghum production is forecast 4 million bushels higher, also on a higher yield. Projected corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting expectations for more shipments, particularly into the southeastern feed market which ordinarily relies heavily on supplies from the eastern Corn Belt. Corn food, seed, and industrial use for 2012/13 is raised 17 million bushels with higher use projected for sweeteners and starch. Corn ending stocks are projected 28 million bushels higher at 647 million. The season-average farm price for corn, at $6.95 to $8.25 per bushel, is projected 20 cents lower at the midpoint, mostly reflecting a lower-than-expected September price and the continuation of weakness in cash and deferred futures prices over the past month.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 91.4 million tons, up 3.2 million from last month due to higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 2.971 billion bushels, up 111 million from last month. The soybean yield is forecast at 39.3 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels as several states show the benefit of late-season rainfall. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1.56 billion based on increased soybean meal export prospects. Soybean exports are raised 80 million bushels to 1.345 billion reflecting larger supplies and the strong pace of sales through October. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.
Soybean oil supplies for 2012/13 are raised this month as increased production more than offsets lower beginning stocks. Soybean oil domestic use is projected at 18 billion pounds with biodiesel use projected at 4.9 billion pounds. Soybean oil stocks are raised 250 million pounds to 1.52 billion on increased supplies.
Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $13.90 to $15.90 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $455 to $485 per short ton, down 15 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 51 to 55 cents per pound, down two cents on both ends.
Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 50 million bushels this month. Exports are projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments, and an outlook for increased foreign competition. Projected U.S. exports are lowered 25 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. Projected all-wheat imports are unchanged, but imports are projected slightly higher for HRW wheat with an offsetting reduction made for SRW wheat imports. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on both ends to $7.75 to $8.45 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.9 million tons lower. Beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 0.3 million tons. Higher 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance in EU-27 and lower production for China account for most of the reduction in global 2012/13 beginning stocks. Higher 2011/12 production for Pakistan and lower exports for Australia raise 2012/13 beginning stocks for both countries and partly offset the reductions for EU-27 and China.
Global wheat production for 2012/13 is lowered 1.6 million tons. Production is reduced 2.0 million tons for Australia as continued dryness during grain fill in October further reduced yield prospects in western and southeastern growing areas. Production is also lowered 0.3 million tons for Turkey based on the latest confirmations that cool, wet weather during the early growing season delayed development, increased disease problems, and lowered yields in the country’s central growing region. Small increases are made in production for Pakistan, EU-27, and Algeria.
Source: USDA