Colder weather moves in today over the Hoosier state. Yesterday was fantastic…today brings a little more reality. Normal temps are in the 50s over northern parts of the state, and low 60s south. We will be close to or below normal in these temperature ranges through the rest of the week and honestly through the rest of the month.
Models went drier yesterday as we look at the precipitation pattern through the rest of the month. A system later tomorrow into Thursday just skirts the southern part of the state, with most action staying south of the Ohio River. There may be some spits and sprinkles over the southern tier of counties lining the river overnight tomorrow night and early Thursday…but amounts will be very, very minor. The rest of the state sees only clouds, if that.
A weekend system stays well south, and the system that had potential to move in early next week moves south with it. That means we likely see no real precipitation threat early next week. In fact, I will step out and say that the only threat of moisture next week will come at midweek, and it will be fleeting. Below normal precipitation is likely through the rest of the month.
Models still have a major disagreement on the end of the month. The American model is still keen on a major system coming out of the western Corn Belt and sweeping into the OH valley around the 29th-31st. The European not so much. However, the GFS also has much better moisture around the 26th, while the European keeps the best action farther south. The GFS attempts to be warmer in the extended period as well…a solution that is not likely to play out to the level shown. Long and short of it is that we expect March to finish below normal on precipitation and likely a bit below normal on temperatures as well.