Moisture exits the state this morning and we should see sun break out over the region this afternoon. Right now we are looking for at least 2 and a half and perhaps 3 and a half dry days before we embark on another wet period next week. Monday is the tricky day. Some models, most notably the European, try and bring some moisture up the backside of our strong high and into the state for Monday morning. Others keep that moisture farther west and allow it to fall apart. I am not a fan of significant moisture forecasts from “backside high” circulations. I won’t rule it out, but for now I want to trend my forecast toward a drier, perhaps cloudier, but drier solution. In any case, make sure you enjoy the weekend. Temps will be cooler Saturday, but bounce some Sunday. Evaporation rates will be good, roughly in the .15” to .2” per day range.
Rains are back with a vengeance the rest of next week. We have rain in the forecast in some way, shape or form from Tuesday through Friday. Instead of two distinct systems, we now are blending them both together, much like what we have seen this past week. We are holding on to 1-3 inch rain totals for the week with 80% coverage. Pretty much all of the state will get rain, just 20% may not quite make it to the lower end of that aforementioned range. Temps stay at or slightly below normal.
Next weekend looks mostly dry again, but longer range models start of the week of the 20th with some .25”-.5” showers, and then a stronger storm for the 24th-25th. That one, if it holds together as advertised, could bring another half to 2 inches in to the state. In any case, wet days equal dry days over the next 16 days in a best case scenario, and wet outnumbers dry 9 to 7 in a worst case scenario. Either way…dry down is going to be tough in the 10 day to two week period ahead.
