The USDA’s June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) report was released on Friday and held few surprises according to market analyst Brian Basting with Advanced Trading.
“We were expecting USDA to cut old crop corn exports and old crop soybean exports—and they did. They were perhaps a bit conservative on their cut in soybeans given the volume of bean trading we’ve seen given the shipments and sales we’ve seen, but it was still a cut. It didn’t increase that the new crop carryout for both corn and beans, but given that those are expected by the market, I think we’re back to trading weather,” according to Basting.
“We did get one surprise on the corn side when they increased the Ukraine old crop corn exports by 1.5 million tons, but I think some of that again may have been in the market with the reaffirmation of the Black Sea grain initiative, which has been signed again there for a couple more months until mid-to-late July. Even that may have been expected by the market,” said Basting.
Overall, the forecast includes a decline in exports for corn and soybeans. The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for 2022/23, down 15 million bushels to 2.0 billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and competition from South America. The soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
The outlook for wheat this month projects larger supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. The 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.30 per bushel to $7.70 on larger U.S. and foreign wheat supplies.
Click below to hear Brian Basting’s analysis of the USDA’s June WASDE Report and its impact on Friday’s ag markets.
Source: NAFB News Service.
