The USDA’s Planted Acreage Estimates Report and Quarterly Stocks Report were both released on Friday, June 30 and included data that surprised many market analysts.
“It was a shocker,” says Brian Basting, Commodity Research Analyst with Advance Trading, Inc. “Starting with the soybean acreage number, it was well below the average trade guess. The average trade guess was 87.7 million acres, and it came in at 83.5 million, so it was 4.2 million acres below the average trade guess.”
Basting says a sharp dip in the prices for soybean futures starting in mid-April may have led to a shift this planting season to a much higher number of corn acres being planted.
“Producers just get kept planting corn from the first of May into late May. That showed up in the corn acreage number being two million higher than in March,” says Basting. “I think with the bean market in a free fall, at least until this recent rally, maybe they just gave up on those last few acres of soybeans?”
Basting says that the soybean acreage numbers may end up being higher at harvest.
“I wouldn’t put that number in stone for soybeans because of the double-crop soybean acres that could still go in the next two to three weeks. I know it’s getting very late, but I think I would not be surprised to see the 83.5 million acres for soybeans edge up somewhat,” says Basting.
Following the release of the USDA’s reports on June 30, soybean futures skyrocketed with the July contract climbing 74 ¼ cents to close at 1557 ¼. However, the report data also led to liquidation for corn futures with the July contract dropping 26 ½ cents to close at 554 ½.
Overall, across the U.S., an estimated 94.1 million acres of corn have been planted in the United States for 2023, up 6% from last year. Meanwhile, the soybean area planted is estimated at 83.5 million acres, down 5% from last year according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
Indiana’s Planted Acreage report data:
In Indiana, 5.50 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2023, up 5 percent from last year, according to Nathanial Warenski, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Indiana Field Office. Corn acreage expected to be harvested for grain totaled 5.38 million acres, also up 5 percent from last year.
Meanwhile, Indiana’s soybean acres are down 6 percent from last year and are estimated at 5.50 million acres. Soybean acreage for harvest is expected to total 5.48 million acres, also down 6 percent from a year earlier, according to the USDA.
Winter wheat planted acres of 410,000 in Indiana are up 41 percent from the previous year. Area expected to be harvested for grain, at 360,000 acres, is up 50 percent from a year ago.
Additional Planted Acreage report data:
Following up on the Prospective Plantings report released in March, NASS surveyed approximately 9,100 segments of land and nearly 64,000 farm operators during the first two weeks of June to gather information on what farmers actually planted. Key findings released in the Acreage report include:
Corn
- Growers expect to harvest 86.3 million acres of corn for grain, up 9% from 2022.
- Ninety-three percent of all corn acres planted in the United States are biotech varieties, unchanged from 2022.
Soybeans
- Soybean harvested area for 2023 is estimated at 82.7 million acres, down 4% from 2022.
- Producers planted 95% of the soybean acreage using herbicide resistant seed varieties, unchanged from 2022.
Wheat
- All wheat planted area for 2023 is estimated at 49.6 million acres, up 9% from last year.
- Winter wheat planted area is estimated at 37.0 million acres, up 11% from 2022.
- Other spring wheat planted area is estimated at 11.1 million acres, up 3% from 2022.
Grain Stocks data:
The USDA also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report to provide estimates of on-farm and off-farm stocks as of June 1. Key findings in that report include:
- Corn stocks totaled 4.11 billion bushels, down 6% from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were up 5% from a year ago, but off-farm stocks were down 15%.
- Soybeans stored totaled 796 million bushels, down 18% from June 1, 2022. On-farm soybean stocks were down 3% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were down 26%.
- All wheat stored totaled 580 million bushels, down 17% from a year ago. On-farm all wheat stocks were up 34% from last year, while off-farm stocks were down 25%.
Click below to hear Brian Basting, Commodity Research Analyst with Advance Trading, Inc., following the release of the USDA’s reports on Friday, June 30.
