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This final harvest forecast of 2023 is a good one. We have potential for most of the next 10 days to be dry, and the next full week at least will be precipitation free.
Temps are cool to start here for Saturday and Sunday, averaging a bit below normal. Then south flow starts to kick up Sunday late and that brings warmer air in for Monday through Saturday this week.
Daytime highs will be a good 10 degrees above normal or more, overnight lows still are cool thanks to lack of clouds. That makes our average temps for the period about 305 degrees above normal, which is still pretty nice for this time of year. We should see excellent evaporation and potential for corn moistures to work lower. The map below shows 5 day average temps vs. normal for this week.
Late this week we have a system trying to develop in the 4 corners region in the SW US. Data has been all over the place on how this system kicks out to the east and the speed at which it moves. At this point we are keeping a drier weekend in our forecast and looking for that moisture to arrive Monday the 20th. Clouds likely increase on Sunday. The system, when it does arrive, has potential for .25”-.75” rain totals with 80% coverage. However, it may keep the best moisture just a bit father west. There is plenty of opportunity for this system to evolve, so we will continue to watch it. Best thing to do is get after your field work this week and get done…so the system is not an issue, no matter when its arrival happens.
Extended Period:
The extended period has a significant frontal passage for Thanksgiving Day, Thursday the 23rd. This system can bring .5”-1.5” of rain to all of the state. We are rain free for Tuesday-Wednesday ahead of it, and then much colder behind it for the finish of the holiday weekend, through the 26th.
Weeks 3 & 4:
The active pattern continues in week 3 with precipitation a bit above normal, but then we pull back for week 4 with a near normal week. Both weeks are still easily above normal on temperatures.
Week 3
Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)
Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)
Week 4
Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)
Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)
