August soybean futures began the week at $11.66 ¼ while November beans started at $11.29 ¾. After Wednesday trade, August sits at $11.13 ¼ while November fell to $10.67. Market analyst Tom Fritz with EFG Group in Chicago tells us that we’re seeing a lot of weather related selling this week, even though he thinks it’s a little early for that.
“We all know soybeans are made in August. But right now, the attitude is that the crop is going to get plenty of moisture to withstand any curveballs Mother Nature may throw at us in August. Also, our demand isn’t very good.”
We’ve reported previously about the significant ag trade deficit with the rest of the world, China in particular. USDA did report a Chinese purchase of 132,000 tons of new crop soybeans Wednesday morning.
“Oh, you want to get excited about that? No,” Fritz says. “We’re so far behind last year’s export sales pace that it would take a hell of a lot. I think all China did was throw us a bone with the collapse in prices here that we’re seeing.”
Asked if he sees a bounce coming for this soybean market, Fritz opined, “Any bounce we see right now, at this point in time, I think it would be mostly due to technical considerations that the market’s oversold. And I’ll be honest with you, we’re really not there yet.”
Hear more from Fritz below.
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