We saw strong gains for corn and soybean futures on Friday following the release of USDA’s January World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report, the Quarterly Stocks Report—as well as the final Crop Production estimates for the 2024 harvest.
USDA slashed corn yield estimates by 3.8 bushels-per-acre (bpa) to 179.3 bpa. That put analysts on their heels after offering an average trade guess of 182.7 bpa. That shoves total production estimates back below 15 billion bushels, with a new projection of 14.867 billion bushels.
As with corn, USDA also made unexpected cuts to soybean yield and production estimates. The average yield fell to 50.7 bpa, versus the average trade guess of 51.6 bpa. Production stumbled from 4.56 billion bushels in December down to 4.36 billion bushels.
Indiana saw a drop in corn production last year. USDA says 999.9 million bushels were harvested in 2024, compared to 1.078 billion bushels in 2023. Corn yields also dropped in 2024 to 198 bushels per acre, compared to 203 in 2023. Indiana also saw a drop in corn acres harvested last year. There were 5.05 million acres in 2023, compared to 5.31 million corn acres harvested in 2023.
However, Indiana did see higher numbers across the board for soybeans in 2024. 341.02 million bushels were harvested in 2024, compared to 334.28 million in 2023. Average yield was 59 bushels per acre, compared to 61 bushels in 2023. Also, Indiana saw 5.78 million acres of soybeans harvested in 2024, compared to 5.48 million acres in 2023.
“We really were shocked by the reduction in the crop size,” says Brian Basting, Commodity Research Analyst and Economist for Advance Trading. “It was just a shocker from a supply standpoint. I don’t want to paint the picture that we’re running out of corn, but it’s much tighter than what the market has been anticipating and significantly tighter than what we were looking at the beginning of harvest. The market may be digesting these numbers for a little bit.”
Basting says the focus over the next several weeks will be the weather forecasts in South America, as it relates to corn and soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina.
“Obviously, they’re in the middle of the growing season down there now, so we want to keep a close eye on Argentina, which is hot and dry as we speak and they’re getting quite a bit of rain. In Brazil, it’s been favorable for the soybean crop there. USDA still has Brazil penciled in for a record soybean harvest—under 69 million tons. But at some point as harvest kicks in during the second half of January, they definitely want things to dry out, so it’ll be something to keep an eye on,” says Basting.
At the close of trade on Friday, the March Corn contract saw a gain of 14 ½ cents per bushel to close at $4.70 ½. Meanwhile, soybeans saw a significant jump on Friday following the release of the USDA reports. The March Soybean contract climbed 21 ¼ cents higher to close at $10.13 ½ per bushel.
CLICK HERE for USDA’s January 2025 Crop Production Report
CLICK HERE For USDA’s January 2025 Quarterly Stocks Report
CLICK HERE for USDA’s January 2025 WASDE Report
CLICK BELOW to hear Brian Basting with Advance Trading, as he shares with Hoosier Ag Today the significance of the data in Friday’s USDA Reports—and its impact on the grain markets.
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