Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/24/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/24/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi


Dow closes off 140, S&P 20 and NASDAQ 36
All came back a bit on short covering
Chinese liquidity crunch problems in the spotlight
Japan’s extreme stimulus measure last month was the tip off
WTI crude closed up $1.26
Gold held down $10
The dollar index slipped back to 9 higher at 82.41
Not many economic indicators left here at months end

August cattle off $.27 at $121.32 paying homage to resistance at $122
August hogs at $98 remain close to their high which today was $99.40
Cattle over bought
Hogs facing seasonal softening
Pig crop Friday has not been very dramatic, as in the old days

Grain and soybeans
Nov beans leveled out at $12.75 after hitting a $12.55 low
Dec corn closed down $ .10 at $5.48
July wheat dropped below $6.80 support to close at $6.79
Corn and soybeans conditions good in approaching “Hot House” development
Export inspections were no big deal as they have been
Global economic growing woes haunt commodities
Stocks and acres Friday
Soybean crush will be a feature in the stocks
About 95 m acres of corn and 78 m beans expected, but the yield is the ultimate question
Showers in the forecast, in a scattered fashion, over the next few days in the Midwest

11:51 update

Dow now down 230, NASDAQ 57 and S&P 30
Dec corn has been low at $5.42 ½ with support at $5.30
Nov beans low $12.55 with support at $12.60 close only
July wheat back down to $6.80 support
Cattle and hogs pawing around near $122 resistance in August cattle and on the high in August hogs near $98

10:04 update

Dow off 153
WTI crude down $.53
Beef stocks and pork up 4% versus last year
$12.60 support Nov beans
Gulf corn and beans 5 lower with SRW down 3 cents
6-10 day forecast warm and dry but current moisture makes for “Hot House” conditions
Beans largely planted
Kansas wheat harvest picks up

9:41 update

Dow off 126, NASADAQ 37 and S&P down 17 at 1575 or below 1595 support with next about where we are
10 year notes at 2.63% the highest yield since 2011
Cattle look over bought near $1.22 at resistance, and hogs at high with seasonal downtrend the norm
Dec corn $.44 off $.13 and Nov beans down $.14 into broad support area


Chinese liquidity crunch bombs Chinese stocks 5.3%
China housing faces similar problem as we did in 2008
Excess building and bad loans
We are all in this together in the global financial environment
Stocks off 1% in US and Euro’s down 1.3%
Bond fund outflows at a record pace
Expanded concerns that fed monetary policy has failed to create jobs, or worse
WTI crude oil $93.56 off $ .13
Gold drop another $11 to $1281 from its $1800 high
Dollar hurts limited export trade up 47 to 82.78

Light cattle trade at $120 and some at $120-121
Boxed beef off $ .09 at $199
COF 97% total, 98% placements 2 higher than expected and 97% marketing’s
Pig crop Friday
Beef at three year low ration versus pork
Pork cutout up $1.24, loins $2.22, hams $1.31 and bellies up $5.10
Cattle kill up 15,000 at 649,000 but expected to decline
Hog slaughter 1,981,000 up 31,000 in catch up

Grain and soybeans
Good warm and wet weekend with more rain moving into central Midwest
New crop corn off $.13, beans 5 and wheat 10 cents lower
6-29 stocks and acres
Corn estimate 95.3 m and beans 78
With enhanced yields
Corn stocks 2,845 b and beans 442 m
Dec corn support is at $5.30 and Nov beans $12.80
Funds sold 8000 corn and 19,000 beans with wheat short covering of 13,000
House fails to pass farm bill, too much to do about food stamps and not enough about Agriculture
Global economic concerns are a black back drop for all commodities