Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 7/8/2013 Weekly Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 7/8/2013 Weekly Comment with Gary Wilhelmi


Small range of trade in major indexes with Dow up 84
Minimum variations in crude, gold and dollar as well
Alcoa earnings are as advertised at $ .07
A worrisome pattern has been that retail investor have been buying in June as professionals went the other way, as historically, the small investor is never right
Earnings have just begun and confidence is lacking

August cattle quietly closed $ .17 lower
August hogs sold off $2.17 as pork cutout returned to its mid June low
Watch beef and pork volume as the Dog Days begin
Watch the pattern of meat features
Choice boxes were off $ .83 at noon

Grain and soybeans
Short covering versus a generally good Corn Belt crop condition was today’s line up
S/D Thursday will give a hint of potential yields, but there will be no survey estimate until August
Corn pollination about 50% underway
Export features: China bought 840,000 tons of 13/14 wheat and, is expected to buy a total of 3.5 MT for year
Japan lifting ban on PNW wheat
Russian production by one source seen at 52.4 MT down from 54 MT
Export inspections light in corn at 8 m and soybeans 2.5 m with wheat 26 m, as ahead of the Black sea harvest, there is a window of opportunity
Western Corn Belt hot and rain slows harvest in SRW of Ohio Valley

12:01 update

Stocks waver with Dow up 83, S&P 9 and NADSAQ 3
Grains and soybeans also vacillate hitting a $4.90 low on Dec corn, $12.25 Nov beans and $6.58 ¾ Sept wheat — choppy
Basically, it is short covering versus ideal weather conditions
August hogs flounder on soft seasonal pork demand fears

10:11 update

Early Dow up 65, NASDAQ 15 and S&P 10
Watch beef and pork movement and featuring activity
120,000 new crop corn to Mexico
135,000 beans to unknown and 120,000 to China
China buys 840,000 tons of 13/14 wheat
Japan to lift PNW wheat ban
Dryness cuts one Russian wheat estimate to 52.4 MT from 54 MT
Corn and soybean charts in a downtrend
Yield hint in S/D report Thursday, but no real estimate until August

Opening Comments

A tough earnings season begins with Alcoa expected to post $ .08
Goldman points to 4% Treasuries
Specs run Dow up 147 after employment
Most of 195,000 jobs were temps
Uncertainty, over Obama care coverage causes employers to hire temps
More cuts coming in Greece’s public sector
German trade data off 3.4 b euro’s in May
DAX up 2.4%
FTSE 1.3 % higher
US-EU free trade talks begin
Is Gold, done going down? Some German bank officials think so
$1235 up $22
WTI crude oil off $ .85 to $102.32
Dollar index sags slightly to 84.34 off 11
72 shot in Chicago over weekend, it has become a big Dodge City, and we don’s have any Matt Dillon’s, but many Chester’s

Southern cash cattle fall to $119, while north holds at $121-122
Choice boxes down $1.69 and select $ .80
Spread in to $8 from $20 last month
Holiday shortened slaughter week
Replacement demand normally picks up in July and August
Pork trade 281 loads with carcass off $ .33, loins up $ .92, hams up $4.22 and volatile bellies down $7.82
And now comes the “Dog Days” of summer

Grain and soybeans
Short covering on Friday and lightly over night
Farm selling slow as basis shifts to September
S/D Thursday but no survey estimate until August
Crop conditions expected to be up 1-2%
Ideal temperatures for development and corn pollination seen at 50%
SRW harvest delayed by rain
Outside markets queasy