Strong winds develop today and hold through tomorrow. These southwest winds will be warming winds and will likely ramp up to 15-30 mph. As we have been saying…these will be indicative of the strength of the cold front that is on the way.
We have no changes to our timing on the next front. It arrives late Friday evening and sweeps through quickly into early Saturday morning. If we are going to get cute with timing, we would say that rains are most likely from around 5pm tomorrow through 3 am Saturday morning. By sunrise Saturday, all action will be off to the east. We are leaving expected rain totals at .25”-.75” and bumping coverage to 100% of the state. However, we are keeping the skew mostly to the lower half of the range. The attached map shows our thoughts on rain as of 7PM tomorrow night.
Much colder air blasts in behind the front with strong north and northwest winds coming in out of Canada. Temps will move to below normal levels for the weekend and will not recover next week. Clouds hold firm over the state Saturday, but precipitation will not be a big deal. Dry weather holds through Tuesday.
No change in the following system either…arriving Wednesday ahead of thanksgiving. We look for rains through Wednesday, perhaps a few sloppy wet snow flakes mixing in overnight Wednesday night, and then just some spotty action through Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Rain totals will stay in the .1”-.5” range with coverage at 70%.
Back to drier for black Friday the 25th, but we can see some scattered showers push in for early the 26th. Than dry for the 27th through the 29th.
We still like another system late in the 11-16 day forecast window near the turn of the month. This front likely moves through for the 30th into the 1st and can have up to half an inch of moisture potential with it. Colder air stays in play, but for now we would lean toward liquid. However, track of the low will be key in any precipitation typing we would do in the days ahead.
Overall, absolutely no change in the forecast or our forecast pattern going forward. We are just sitting back and waiting for this first front to arrive, and dramatically change our recent warmer than normal pattern.