Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms will be here Sunday as the remains of Gordon work through. We think the best look at it here as we head into the weekend is for a large part of the state to see at least 1-4 inches. Then, we can see a much smaller percentage of the state getting 4-6 inches or more. Coverage of rain in the state will be 100%. However, the most intense rains will be limited to about 20%. The map below is a rough estimate of how rain totals will be viewed after everything is done Monday. (note, these totals are “event” totals…meaning rains from Saturday will be on this map too.Rains end Sunday night, and that will lead to a mostly dry Monday. Tuesday also is dry through the daylight hours and we only have to watch for a few scattered showers near the Ohio River Tuesday evening and toward midnight.
Scattered showers are back for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We only see coverage at 30-40% on any of those individual days, but combined we are closer to 60% coverage for the 3-day period. Rain totals combined will be under half an inch.
Temps the next few days, while the rains are falling, will be cooler. Then behind the heavy rains temps start to rebound early next week and will continue to climb to above normal levels of the rest of the forecast window.
Finally, a nice dry period comes in for next weekend as we kick off the extended 11-16 day window. We should be dry through (Saturday and Sunday on through Tuesday the 18th. Temps will be climbing for the period and we should see excellent drying conditions which will be needed. Scattered showers are still on the way for the 19th, but that system has been weakening to look rather minor. We expect rain totals of half an inch or less with coverage at 70%, and this could become even less of a story as we get closer to it.
Back to dry weather for the 20th, 21st and early the 22nd. Then we see a small-scale batch of disturbed weather coming in from the NW for the afternoon of the 22nd into the 23rd. Rains could give a few hundredths to half an inch max.
Weeks 3 & 4:
For weeks 3 and 4, we continue to move into a pattern that will not be completely dry but will feature nice dry windows in-between events. We have 1 front around the 29th that brings half to 1-inch rains, and then a minor front closer to October 4th, with a few hundredths to half an inch tops. Temps, though, will slowly step back, near normal for week 4, and below normal for week 4.