A frontal boundary starts to work into the state today, but the system it is associated with will stay north of the area as it moves east. That means we see less precipitation potential today but see that increase somewhat overnight tonight and tomorrow. Hit and miss shower and thunderstorm action today will be mostly over the northern half of the state but will have coverage of only 40%-50% of areas from I-70 northward. Thunderstorms can trigger some heavier rains, but those will be stretched with large areas in between. Rain tonight and tomorrow has better coverage statewide but may not have as much conviction with it. All told, combining today and tomorrow, we can look for .25”-1” of rain over about 80% of the state. Many areas will be in the lower end of that range.
The weekend looks drier. We like the Saturday-Sunday period to be mostly rain-free, although we admit there can be some clouds and pop up moisture around Saturday. Coverage will be minor. The dryness extends through a large part of Monday too. However, we still have a second system coming. The fact that the weekend and most of Monday is dry only means we are pushing it back to mostly Tuesday. Rains start Monday night, and then we can see heavy rain and thunderstorm action for Tuesday and the 4th of July holiday. Rains will be .5”-1.5” with 90% coverage. However, we have some concern about this system slowing and getting strung out, which would bring additional rains in for Wednesday. If that happens, we could see 2-day rain totals over 2 inches in spots. Thunderstorms will be a big part of the event, and we do expect some severe weather.
Dry from late Wednesday through the end of the week. Models are suggesting some scattered showers trying to push in for next Saturday. However, we also are looking for strong high pressure to start to build and perhaps an upper-level ridge. This will mean we have to watch that moisture closely to see if it can hold up under the advance of a hotter, drier pattern toward the end of the 10-day period. If the moisture holds, it will bring up to .3” of rain over about 60% of the state. IF the moisture folds under that developing high…that gives a good potential of a stronger ridge moving into the extended period.
The 11-16 day window looks warm and mostly dry. High pressure should be in play through a large part of the period. However, we think this setup could yield heat based thunderstorms, and at least some off and on shower action at times.