Market Ends 2014 Just About Where it Started
While 2014 has been a wild ride for the futures market, according to Dan Hueber, with the Hueber Report, corn prices are at the same level at the end of 2014 as they were in the beginning, “Last December we were all in the dumps because corn prices had hit the $4 level, and we were all projecting a 2 billion bushel carryout. Here we are a year later and we are still projecting a 2 billion bushel carryout.” The difference is that last January we were hoping for a return to $5 corn while this January we will are hope we don’t revisit the $3 level. Hueber is recommending that producers look for opportunities in the early part of 2015 to market their 2014 crop, “The corn market still has some carry in it. We should see some chances to sell in the $4.25 to $4.50 range between now and July.”
As for soybeans, Hueber sees a large South American crop coming, “Early yield results from Brazil indicate they will likely produce a record large crop.” In addition, he sees 2 million more soybean acres in the US in 2015. This will pressure soybean prices, but fewer corn acres are not likely to raise corn prices, “We could do just fine with 2 million less corn acres. The market would not go into a panic mode.” He does not see the market offering corn growers any price premium to plant more corn in 2015.
One crop Hueber is bullish about is sorghum. He told HAT that 2014 saw sorghum exports to China soar. He sees an expansion in sorghum acres in the US in the coming year, “2014 saw a 19% jump in sorghum exports, with over half of that going to China.” He sees sorghum acres in the US increasing in 2015.
Hueber sees a lot more market volubility for 2015, “We sort of got spoiled by a market that was very forgiving, but I do not see that happening for the next several years.” He added it will take a good deal of patience and a sharp pencil when marketing the crop in 2015.
