Harvest Forecast: Too Much Precipitation Ahead

Way too much water in the forecast for this weekend to start our final harvest forecast outlook. Rains from Friday night through Sunday morning will end up bringing half to 2” rain totals to 100% of Indiana. Cold air comes in behind this strong storm complex for Sunday afternoon. Any lingering moisture may end as wet snow, but generally, we don’t see snow as much of an issue with the initial storm passage. However, after a brief period of dry slot activity, we see wrap around moisture moving over the state in the much colder air Sunday night through Monday midday. In that period, we can see snow showers, perhaps giving a coating to an inch or two, and the heaviest coming in central Indiana. There can be some wind with that snow event.

Dry for Monday afternoon through Thursday. Temperatures will stay cold for Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then temps moderate Thursday into weekend. A minor front works through the state overnight Thursday night into Friday, bringing perhaps a few hundredths to .2” of liquid equivalent. This can come as either light rain or wet snow, or both, considering the best chances are in the overnight. However, the action is very minor. We should be done by midday Friday, with clouds trying to break up again.

The weekend looks drier, with a mix of clouds and sun. The map below shows 10 day precip totals combined (liquid equivalent).

Extended Period:

Scattered showers mover through Monday the 9^th and may end as some wet snow. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will be from .25”-.6” with coverage at 80% of Indiana. We are dry for Tuesday the 10^th and Wednesday the 11^th. Another system moves through for Thursday the 12^th with .25”-.75” of liquid equivalent, again rain to start with a chance of snow as the precipitation ends. Models suggest another system with a more southern track for Saturday the 14^th, and if the track stays where it is right now (not likely…way too much time for this system to move and evolve), we would be looking at some better snow potential. We will keep an eye on that system.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Week’s 3 and 4 show a slight rebound in temps, but near normal precipitation. This means we see tough “significant drydown” conditions, as we likely add at least a little bit of moisture to the state each week. That being said…if we can get through the next 2 weeks with minimal moisture or at least less than we are seeing right now, we will still have an opportunity to slowly work through the rest of what is left over the weeks ahead.

Week 3

Precipitation, week ending December 21 (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperature, Week ending December 21 (orange: above normal, blue: below)