The USDA published its third trade outlook for fiscal year 2024. The trade outlook for 2024 is unfortunately still showing the United States with a record trade deficit.
Betty Resnick, an economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, says 2024 will see lower agricultural exports.
“There is still expected to be a record agricultural trade deficit of $30.5 billion and also an annual decline in agricultural exports of about $8.3 billion to now $170.5 billion. And that reduction is fueled primarily by a reduction in both the value and volume of soybeans and soybean products and also a strong U.S. dollar.”
Resnick says this report includes some notable changes compared to the previous one issued late last year.
“Overall, U.S. agricultural exports and imports, both of them are projected up a billion dollars each. As for our export partners, U.S. exports to China were revised down by $800 billion as compared to the previous report, while exports to both Mexico and Canada were increased. Mexico has almost caught up to China as the number one destination for U.S. agricultural products.”
Resnick talks about what’s driving the forecasted increase in trade income.
“The increase in exports in the February outlook is being driven primarily by an increase of about four percent or $1.4 billion in livestock and dairy products, driven by both robust exports and rising prices in those products and an increase of $700 million in grain exports. These increases were counterbalanced by further declines in soybeans, which were reduced by $1 billion or 2.6 percent due to both falling prices and volume.”
