Soybean prices took a nice bounce on Friday, but the long term outlook does not look good for higher prices. “Ten dollar soybeans are overvalued,” said well-known market advisor Bob Utterback. He added that, by next year, we will see a $9 in front of soybean futures, “If South America increases their soybean production and US soybean acreage in 2015 approaches 88 million acres of soybeans, there will be extreme price pressure on prices in the fall of 2015.”
Utterback sees low corn prices next year may shift even more acres to soybeans. Without a weather event in either South American or North America to reduce production, prices will be very low at harvest, “I think there is a 70/30 chance that the bean market will have a $9 or even lower in front of it by the fall of 2015.”
Utterback is recommending that producers lock in 2015 prices now to put a floor under prices, “I would rather defend against a weather event that leads to higher prices than do nothing and hope bad weather happens to someone else and rescues the market.” The Indiana-based analyst does not see soybean prices recovering until 2016.