USDA says it is going to be a big crop this year and during a lengthy road trip last week one of our HAT market analysts got a look at about 1,800 miles of farm fields. Bob Utterback with Utterback Marketing Services agrees there is going to be a lot of grain harvested. His trip to the Big Iron Farm Show took him from central Indiana, through Illinois, to Council Bluffs, Iowa, up to Sioux Falls then Fargo, North Dakota, and back through Minnesota and northern Illinois.
“Early farmer yield estimates coming in from some early harvest beans are coming exceptionally strong,” he said. “Sixty was not an uncommon number and I heard a couple of 70’s. I’ve been even hearing 70’s and 80’s around Indiana, so I am pretty much convinced that the good area is exceptionally good. Yes, there was some white mold in some of the beans. Yes, there was some impact on corn with the dry weather we had in July, but overall I think corn is going to exceed average yields by 20-30 bushels for a lot of the areas that I saw, and bean yields could be some of the best beans we’ve seen.”
Utterback said there will be pressure on the markets from the large numbers, and once harvest progress gets past the 65-70% complete stage, “I think you’re going to start hearing of corn piles starting to build, running out of storage, basis is going to widen, and that’s going to have impact on your spreads and your carrying charge. But the next three weeks I think you have to prepare for bearishness. If you’ve got some old crop corn and sell off the combine, or beans, take advantage of this short term bounce.”
Because Utterback says, over the next three weeks the market will revisit some lower prices.