This week the market will be trying to figure out the long term ramifications of last week’s USDA crop production report. Most everyone in the market does not believe the USDA yield numbers released last week, and most traders feel actual yields will be much lower. Jim Bower, with Bower Trading, says in time the real numbers will come out, “There is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. There are many traders who were caught off guard by the data that came from USDA. I don’t know who is right, but my experience in this business tells me that in the end the market will figure it out.”
Bower says the next several weeks will likely see a stable market, “Overall, we can expect a sideways trade until the combines get rolling and we get some actual yield data out of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa.” He added that will be an important market signal to watch for.
Bower says the rest of the world will also be watching our actual yield numbers, “The South American producer is watching very closely what will happen in the U.S. this fall.” He also noted that soybean prices in China this week have rallied while U.S. prices have declined.
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