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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

EIA Energy data showed an increase in Crude Oil Stocks of +4.22 bbls; and stocks at 487.03 mln bbls; vs the expected increase of +1.0 bbls.
EIA Fuel Ethanol Production change by +13,000 bbl to 982,000 bbl/day. EIA Fuel Ethanol Stocks increased by +0.1 at 18.9 mln bbl.

Corn

Corn held in check, trading in a range of 4 cents including the overnight.

The corn market traded quietly for a second day in a row, chopping around in a tight 3-4 cent range throughout.
Today’s close is within a penny of where the market was trading prior to the release of the USDA report. So far, sellers seem reluctant here and Tuesday’s low (3.56) should prove to be good support. Trendline resistance tomorrow will still be around $3.69 December.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today estimated Argentina Corn planting acreage at 36.5% vs. last week at 35.9% complete with some 994,010 hectares planted out of the 2.720 mln hectare expected to be planted.

Soybeans

Soybeans traded higher after new sale announcement and stayed quiet for remainder of the day.

This morning’s announcement for the USDA daily reporting system of a new sale of 300,000 mt of soybeans sold to China helped to refresh the idea that they are not ready to slow down as of yet and Gulf basis has been firming back in recent days. Soybean export sales estimates are between 550k-1.0 mln mt, Soymeal 100k-350k mt, and Soyoil 5k-50k mt.
Commodity Analysts before next week’s October NOPA crush report are expecting the report to show 163.5 mln bushels crushed during the month and that is much higher than last year’s month when US crushers processed 157.9 mln bushels, according to Reuters. End of October soyoil stockpiles are seen at 1.44 bln lbs up from September’s 1.35 bln lbs and last year’s month of 966 mln lbs. That report will be released on Monday, November 16th at 11:00 am CST.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Soybean planting progress at 20.% complete vs. last week of 8.3%, with some 19.80 mln hectares of soy acreage planted this season.

Wheat

Wheat traded higher for a second consecutive day also, with Chicago market targeting the 5.00 mark in December.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday said Argentine wheat harvest has been delayed by rains lately, was estimated at 7.1% complete vs. last week at 4.6%. The exchange is still forecasting a 9.50 mln mt wheat crop.
Still some weather concerns remain over the 2016 Ukraine wheat crop, with some comparing this year’s crop to the poor crop of 2012.
The KC-Chi spread slipped a little closing down .03 ¾, at -.34 ¼. Down to levels not seen since 2007.

Livestock

Livestock markets continue to see some follow through short covering action today, although currently backed off from their earlier highs by a couple of dollars.

Cash cattle were reportedly bid at $131 in Texas and Kansas earlier today. Offers were standing firm at $135. No trade was reported at the time.

Technically, Fat and Feeder cattle posting more positive numbers after flushing out swing lows from early October earlier in the week. However, the supply news is still negative and it will take stronger demand to absorb the short-term supply. Hogs continue to trade in oversold territory, but showing good signs of a trying to at least get back to the 60.00 area on charts.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Questions or comments? Contact us at 1-866-249-2528 or waterstreet@waterstreet.orgwaterstreet@waterstreet.org>

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Aaron Hodge | Market Associate
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(309) 680-1200 | ahodge@waterstreet.org

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