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Closing Comments


Closing Comments

Global equity markets were all weaker to start the day largely due to disappointing Chinese trade data. The trade data was viewed as a negative for most commodities as China is ramping up their exports of commodities. Crude oil managed to come back during today’s trade after putting in a new low to start the day. Ethanol margins slid another 2 c/gallon leaving breakeven margins which doesn’t leave them a lot to spare.

Farmer selling has slowed compared to last week’s pace which is no surprise with yesterday’s weakness. USDA report is out tomorrow at 11 am, few changes are anticipated since historically the December report does not bring unexpected changes to the market.


Corn values at the gulf were firmer today given yesterday’s weakness in the futures. Ethanol plants and processor bids were mostly steady.

Brazilian corn exports set a record high volume in November and the December numbers are likely to rise nearly 10 percent even with more rains in the forecast.


Soybean bids were steady while processors were weak due to cash soybean meal weighing on the complex. Soybean meal put in another new low today.

China imported 7.39 million tonnes of soybeans in November which pushes the 11 month total to 72.57 million tonnes up 15%. Also to note edible oil imports were up 45% and reached nearly 580,000 tonnes in the month of November.

Concerns will remain over the Argentine currency adjustments taking place sooner than initially expected and the potential increased movement of soybeans and products onto the world market.


Ukraine Ag Ministry has estimated that up to 17% of the winter seeded crops have not sprouted over four grain growing states. The winter wheat crop is currently rated at 66% satisfactory to excellent conditions while the other 34% is in poor condition which is a six year high.

The bearish tone of the outside markets continue to weigh on wheat and if the dollar starts marching towards a new high it will also hinder a recovery for now.


Pork cutout values started lower this morning with carcass down -3.57 on 251 loads. The big break was in the bellies which were down -16.19 but hams were also sharply lower. The main talking point in the hog complex remains tied closely to Chinese demand. So far demand simply has not been the factor many expected and is part of the reason why price is stuck in a range between 50.00-60.00.

Boxed beef prices were modestly higher in both the choice and the select. Choice was up +1.84 which select was up +0.92 on 80 loads. Feeder cattle traded limit down after starting +1.00 higher but managed to close off of limit.

Most are expecting the US Senate to vote in the next two weeks to either repeal COOL or modify it enough so it satisfies Canadian and Mexican objectives. With all of the uncertainty surrounding the issue, some market participants may opt to sit on the sidelines for now.

Closing Market Snapshot

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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