Home Market Market Watch Closing Comments

Closing Comments


Closing Comments – Holiday Edition

Energies, grains, and livestock were all under pressure today despite increasingly harsh weather conditions across the Midwest. The market was also greeted with some sour economic news, as Dallas Fed data released today showed increasing output matched with rapidly shrinking demand for products capping over a year of shrinking orders for Southern factories.

Corn was pressured lower today, mostly by the aggressive dip in the bean market, but also due to lackadaisical exports, and competition from Argentina for what business remains. Rumors of a 100k mt of mixed feed booked out of Argentina for delivery to North Carolina also has had a bearish psychological impact on the market. Export shipments were decent for corn at 570k mt, but below trade expectations of 625k mt.

Soybeans were the weakest trade in the complex today, as news of rain bringing relief to drought stricken Mato Grasso did its best to remove what little weather premium the market was holding. Forecasts are also pressuring the market, as rain could continue to ease dry conditions in Central to Northern Brazil in the 6-15 day time period. Export shipments were at expectations of 1.4 mmt; interestingly, these export shipments total 56% of the USDA target for the year, relative to the average of 47% for this date, but behind last year’s scorching pace of 59%.

Wheat held up well today despite the negative direction of the majority of the grain sector, closing down ½ a cent. Uncertainty driven by potentially damaging conditions in the South, South East, and Midwest stabilized the markets concerned about the potential for incredibly saturated soils freezing quickly and damaging the crop. Export shipments were slightly below expectations at 305k mt vs 325k expected.

Cattle were slightly lower, very allowable after the strength of recent sessions, with the negative impact of current weather likely having already worked its way into the market. Hogs also continued to show strength, especially in the differed months with positive slaughter numbers at the tail end of last week firming up the markets.

Closing Market Snapshot

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

or 1-866-249-2528