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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

ADM reported a drop in quarterly profit on Tuesday on poor ethanol margins and lower grain exports. The announcement sent shares falling 8 percent.
Sources say state owned ChemChina is nearing a deal to buy Swiss based Syngenta for around $42.2 billion.
The collapse in oil revenues in Russia has their government lining up seven major state companies for potential privatization sales to plug their budget hole. Businesses range from airlines to diamond mines.

Corn

Corn closes higher but capped by weakness in energy and technical resistance.
Corn was generally supported for much of the session today on anticipation of seasonal support to prices and concern over heavy rains in corn production areas in Argentina. However the weakness in energy and the general reluctance of the market to really turn to buying has kept the corn market in a sideways range – frustrating bears and bulls.
Today’s high of 373 ¾ March will lend upside resistance with the 3.80 resistance above. For now the 3.65 area has proven support and the 50 day moving average has flattened out for the first time since October.

Soybeans

Seasonal historical price trends brings buyers to Soybeans.
While fresh bullish news is lacking in the soybean complex with generally favorable weather in South America and China continuing to move business south of the equator – the market is showing supportive signs. The fund position is still short – often a temporary position for speculators in beans – and the Brazilian farmer is more sold already than usual which could relieve some hedge pressure. However the most supportive factor is likely the trade recognition that the beginning of February is usually supportive to price and they are willing to lean more to the buy side, irrespective of the large coming South American crop.
In the March contract, overhead resistance will be found in the 8.90-9.00 area. If soy meal can find direction higher, it’s possible the soy market eyes the 9.20 and 9.40 areas. For now though the market continues to be in a large sideways consolidation mode.

Wheat

Wheat can’t hold on to early session gains.
Condition ratings improved in KS during January – but other top winter wheat state conditions declined.
Egypt cancelled its recent optional origin tender from lack of offers due to its 0% ergot requirements. Many see this as an un-fillable tender and an effort to support domestic prices.
Reuters survey anticipates the Canadian wheat stockpiles shrinking compared to the year prior in anticipation of Thursday’s Stats Canada report.

Livestock

Cattle supported on winter weather while hogs suffer from technical selling.
Western weather helped support live cattle futures as deliveries get disrupted to packing plants and shut down some beef and pork processing plants.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings. Select and Choice rib and loin cuts steady while chuck and round cuts firm to higher.
Technical selling came in to the overbought hog market. The morning wholesale pork price was up 65 cents per cwt. Cash hogs in the Midwest traded mostly steady to up 50 cents per cwt.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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