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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Global concerns over the threat of Britain’s exit from the Eurozone had both the Euro and British Pound lower as the breakup is seen as a sign of risk to the stability of the Euro. Collectively the Euro and Pound Sterling represent 70 percent of the index value of the most popular US dollar index. Britain’s referendum on exit from the EU is scheduled for June 23rd.

USDA Outlook Forum this week will release initial projections the end of the week. Farmer survey estimates will be released the end of March.

Corn

Corn export inspections and short covering provide some Monday support.

Corn inspections came in above expectations and the second highest for the marketing year at 35.4 mln bu. Separately, USDA said private exporters sold 100,000 tonnes of US corn to Colombia.

Spread had March losing to May as basis contracts near decision time for farmers. Resistance will be in the 3.70 area March this week. A break above 3.73 should give corn a supportive tone (especially if wheat would stop going down).

Soybeans

Soybeans marginally higher on short covering and stronger Brazilian real currency.

Soybeans export inspections were seasonally strong at 56.2 mln bu – the market only needs 18 mln a week to meet the USDA numbers.

March soybeans were able to put in a new high on the move from February lows, but couldn’t sustain the strength past mid-morning.

In the spreads; March lost to May, May lost to July.

Wheat

Wheat struggles to find strength in the face of ample supplies and the global search for buyers.

Export inspections in wheat were a disappointing 9 mln bushels. We need about 16 mln to meet USDA targets. It’s said if you keep your expectations low enough, you won’t be disappointed – but the wheat market seems to continue to be disappointed.

1/3 of Ukraine’s wheat is estimated to be in poor condition. Last fall’s weather kept several acres from going into winter crops and a large percentage of what did get planted is plagued with poor conditions. The expectation for the unplanted acres is for spring planted corn.

MARS, the EU crop monitor group, expressed doubt that EU grain crops will suffer any further frost damage in February despite being hardened against cold due to persistently mild weather.

Livestock

Cattle futures move with higher beef prices.

Live cattle contracts settled higher, supported by the strength in wholesale beef prices this morning. Wholesale choice beef price jumped $1.55 per cwt to $213.21. Select cuts rose 77 cents to $208.92. Supportive equity markets and expectation of seasonal demand helped to support the price.

Wholesale pork price lifted lean hogs. Morning wholesale pork price jumped $1.29 per cwt according to the USDA.

Closing Market Snapshot

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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