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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

EIA report showed crude oil stocks surged to their 2nd consecutive record high from a drop off in refinery utilization while unleaded stocks did fall. Ethanol stocks fell slightly, but was essentially neutral for ethanol – ethanol futures were slightly lower.

Weakness from the wheat market pressed on the grains today as the market continues to struggle to find a reason to scare commercials into ownership or funds out of their short positions.

Corn

Corn pressured from weakness in wheat and anticipation of acreage increases from the USDA outlook forum tomorrow.
Losses in corn were less than those in wheat as corn/wheat spreading continues – but pressure nonetheless as the market anticipate expansion of acres in the USDA outlook numbers to be released tomorrow.
Fortunately corn is still seen as competitive on the world market as Columbia was in the market for 110,000 tonnes of corn – the eight daily sale over 100,000 tonnes this month.
Funds however returned as sellers of 7,500 or so contracts in corn today – continuing to press the short positions – even as spring approaches on the anticipation of good acreage and cooperative weather.
Technically March has held the 3.58 ¼ low from the 12th of this month. Corn is at a juncture where it needs to prove it can hold the 3.55 to 3.58 area. First notice day for March grains is Monday. .

Soybeans

Soybeans only slightly lower as sellers were reluctant to press ahead of the USDA outlook numbers.
Soybeans recovered early losses on hesitation of sellers ahead of the release of USDA outlook numbers tomorrow as the market is expecting an expansion of both corn and soybean acres for 2016 but uncertain about trade estimates. The first numbers that include actual farmer surveys will be released in the USDA March 31 perspective plantings report.
Soy oil recovered some of yesterday’s losses while the meal market continues its sideways trade.
Soybean futures continue to trade in narrower and narrower ranges – awaiting news to throw the market out of balance.

Wheat

Wheat lower, again, on abundant supplies and weakness in the European market..
Paris wheat futures dropped to hit a new contract low, contributing to the 5 ½ year low in Chicago as global traders see very little relief from the global supply pressure. Ample supplies and lack of 2016 weather fear had wheat break down and out of the recent price consolidation. Demand out of France and Germany for their wheat is still seen by the market as too soft to make up for the coming crop.
Buyers continue to be complacent while Argentine and Black Sea sources continue to undercut prices, aided by the currency exchange.
Anticipation of deliveries on first notice day next week also weighed on spot prices.
Technically the Chicago market seems to continue to eye ’09/’10 lows around 4.25, today’s low in March was 4.38.

Livestock

Cattle and hogs higher on supportive cash markets and technical buying.
Cattle and feeder cattle higher today, supported by wholesale beef values helping the outlook for cash cattle trade the end of the week. Choice beef jumped $2.27 per cwt to $217.41. Select climbed $1.15 to $213.45.
Early spring weather and March Easter could open up an earlier grilling season for the beef market.
Lean hogs were higher on technical buying. The Midwest storm has slowed movement of livestock which is supporting cash prices. Cash hog prices were up 40 cents to $63.09.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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