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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Crude oil was able to hold on to early gains as incremental cuts in production gives the trade hope for some secession to the current supply glut.

Grains can’t muster a turnaround Tuesday as global supplies and lacking news continue to weigh on the market.

Corn

Corn is holding winter lows as the recent rally in unleaded helps move ethanol margins closer to breakeven.

USDA said 441.3 mln bu of corn were used in January for ethanol, down from 443.9 mln in the previous year.

Tomorrow’s IEA petroleum report is expected to show a drawdown in the large crude and gasoline stocks and a stabilization of the record large ethanol stocks.

Weather patterns have the southern Midwest on track for early planting if rain systems permit. Weather analysts are showing central Midwest soil temperatures two to four weeks ahead of schedule.

Soybeans

Soybeans continue their descent on ample supplies.

Soybeans start March by retreating from overnight strength and renewing their move lower to trade range support and threatening new lows.

Soy oil weakness, though not headline driven, spilled into the soybean market midday.

This morning the USDA reported a 140,000 mt sale of old crop soybeans to unknown.

The USDA monthly crush report showed Jan crush at 160.4 mln bu, down from 167 in Dec thanks to the pressure on crush margins. Soy oil stocks increased as did soy meal.

Brazil exported 2.04 mln mt of soybeans in Feb, which was well ahead of the 870,000 mt in Feb of 2015.

Wheat

Wheat leads the weakness on EU wheat working to compete for corn business and good crop condition ratings.

NASS’ release yesterday of winter wheat crop conditions major production states had futures pressured most all of today. Conditions were mostly better than a year ago with KS as 59% G/E, TX at 40%, OK at 68%, NE at 59% and IL at 58%. Sustaining these ratings will likely lead to improve yields over last year in the Plains.

Livestock

Hope for stronger cash prices support cattle futures.

Cattle futures regained early losses in anticipation for higher cash cattle trade later this week. Cash bids in TX and NE are $136 vs asking prices of $140. Packer margins in beef continues to struggle.

Hog trade was quiet on lack of clear fundamental direction for hogs. Support right now from the cattle market while bulls are indicating some production concerns despite the record large output for 2016 forecast by the USDA. Cash hogs in the Midwest sold steady to 50 cents per cwt lower this morning.

Closing Market Snapshot

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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