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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Weekly EIA inventory report showed a draw of inventories across the energy complex. While crude inventories rose 3.9 mln barrels, they were offset by a drop of 4.5 mln in gas stocks and 0.7 drop in distillates.

Corn

Corn traded ‘inside day’ on no change in corn information from the USDA.
USDA made no changes to the US corn balance sheet while globally the coarse grain supplies for 15/16 were projected 1.6 mln tons lower on lower beginning stocks of corn in Brazil and lower production out of South Africa.
US balance sheet continues to risk a lowering of exports due to the slow pace to date for the marketing year.
Ethanol info out of the EIA came in close to expectations with a small cut in production and a rebound in inventory levels. The rebound in inventory in the Gulf region is likely staging for exports.
The trade now looks to the March 31 plating intentions report and for spring weather patterns for price direction. The current large fund short position should offer support as spring approaches.

Soybeans

Soybeans lower on a jump in soybean ending stocks of 10 mln bu by the USDA.
US soybean production was revised lower due to South Carolina production, but US ending stocks jumped 10 mln bu from last month on the slower crush.
Global oilseed production for 15/16 is projected at 526.9 mln tons, down slightly from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 320.2 mln tons, also down slightly from last month.
Global veg oil production is nearly unchanged this month as higher soybean oil and peanut oil production helped to offset lower palm oil production in Malaysia. Global veg oil stocks are projected at 16.5 mln tons, down marginally from last month.
Strength in the Brazilian currency is providing additional market support, closing at 6 ½ month highs today.
Meal was lower on the day but still closed for the fourth day above the 50 moving average while soy oil regained ground in the oilshares closing up 0.60.

Wheat

Wheat higher on unchanged US stocks and a slight drop in world numbers.
The USDA made no changes to this month’s all wheat balance sheets. Hard Red Winter exports were raised 10 mln bu and Hard Red Spring exports were lowered 10 mln bu.
Global 15/16 wheat supplies were lowered 3.3 mln tons on decreased production – primarily out of India and Australia. Offsetting a small increase in the EU. Global production remains at record levels.
The record large net short fund position continues to offer the wheat market short covering rally opportunities. Kansas City led price action today with the May contract putting in its third close above the 50 day moving average – the first time since October.

Livestock

Cattle steady while hogs surge on expectation of tight summer supplies.
According to the USDA, the 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher forecast first-quarter broiler and turkey production more than offsets small reductions in beef and pork. First-quarter beef production is reduced on the pace of slaughter and lower carcass weights. Pork production is reduced on slightly lighter carcass weights.
Beef import and export forecasts are unchanged from last month. The pork export is forecast lowered from last month on recent trade data.
Cattle contracts were steady as the trade watches for signals in the cash trade and for signs of what beef demand might be after Easter.
Hog prices were stronger today on expectations of tighter supplies for summer grilling. According to USDA breeding intentions, hog producers could have 2 percent fewer animals ready to slaughter for meat by summer

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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