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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

The dollar broke and the euro rallied on ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments this morning that he did not anticipate more interest rate cuts to revive the sluggish Eurozone economy. The market had anticipated more aggressive action by the ECB than what was stated. Draghi reiterated that he expects rates to remain low for a long time.

The weaker US dollar provided support across the grain and livestock complex today.

Corn

Corn higher on short covering and strength in wheat.
USDA export sales for corn came in at the high end of expectations at 46 mln bu.
The head of the stat-owned Chinese food processor COFCO proposed to the Chinese parliament that the government should release its massive state corn reserves as soon as possible rather than waiting until their stockpiling scheme ends in April. This could press on global corn prices if their anticipated prices come in at import pricing levels. China will unveil its new corn pricing policy later this month.
Funds reportedly bought 10,000 corn contracts today.

Soybeans

Soybeans extends rally on currency headlines.
Soybeans continued their winning streak – their seventh green close in a row – on continued strength in Brazil real and the weakness in the US dollar triggering more short covering strength.
Brazil’s CONAB raised its 15/16 soybean crop estimate to a record 101.18 mln tonnes, up from 100.93 in the February estimate. The increase was primarily driven on expanded planting acres.
USDA export sales came in as expected, soy oil good and meal below expectations.
Soybeans had their best close since before Christmas, threatening to break up through trend line resistance. May closed at 889 ¼, the 200 day moving average is above the market near 9.05.

Wheat

Wheat higher for seventh day as dollar drops.
Wheat was able extend its recent rally as a weaker US dollar and concerns about crop weather triggered short covering but found very little farmer selling to meet it.
The dollar collapsed against the euro on ECB President’s comments that he does not anticipate more interest rate cuts. Wheat’s need to compete on the global market keeps it most sensitive to currency fluctuations.
Weather concerns in the dry conditions in parts of the southern Plains and heavy rains in the Delta and southern Midwest.
USDA exports sales came in at trade expectations.

Livestock

Cattle strong on technical buying and anticipation of cooperative spring grilling weather.
Box prices got a boost in mid-week trading when choice jumped three dollars. The nice weather across the nation is helping to push ground beef higher. The weekly slaughter moved up modestly last week to 534,000 head. Today’s boxed beef trade had choice up $1.36 to $225.18 and select up $0.17 to $213.81.
Cargill announced it will be scaling back the use of antibiotics on its four company-owned feedlots in Texas, Kansas and Colorado.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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