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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Crude oil was down for the second straight day on technical selling and continued anxiety around US and global stockpiles.

The US dollar index was mixed today ahead of comments tomorrow from the Fed.

Corn

Corn mixed after reaching three week highs on the recent short covering rally.
The record large short position reported by the CFTC last week continues to support price as speculators work out of short positions ahead of the planting intentions report at the end of March and anticipation of potential wet eastern corn belt planting conditions and potential for above average summer temperatures.
May corn will encounter initial resistance around 3.71 to 3.73 this week.

Soybeans

Soybean’s recent eight day short covering rally stalls on technical selling.
Soybeans fell on weaker Brazilian currency, technical selling and the continued pace of South American harvest. Today was the fund’s first real day of active selling in soybeans since the first of March.
US soy processors slowed their pace of crushing less than expected last month, putting together the third busiest February on record according to the NOPA report. NOPA said its members crushed 146.181 mln bu of soybeans in Feb, compared to Feb of 2015 at 146.970. Analysts were expecting 139.942 mln. NOPA said soy oil stocks at the end of Feb stood at 1.792 bln lb, above the forecast of 1.599.
Veg oil industry association Aboive revised its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop up 1 percent to a record 99.7 mln tonnes from last month’s forecast.
South American harvest should progress well over the next two weeks on cooperative weather.

Wheat

Wheat holds off extending its recent rally.
Concern over the potential for the dry weather in the southern Plains to persist into June helped the Kansas City contract to find support and helping the May contract to close unchanged.
Despite the dryness concerns, winter wheat ratings are holding up with Kansas at 56% good/excellent compared to 41% a year earlier.

Livestock

Surge in wholesale beef prices provide optimism for higher cash cattle later this week.
This morning’s wholesale choice beef price leaped $3.45 per cwt from Monday to $230.92. Select cuts spiked $4.63 to $222.12.
The hope is the warm spring brings with it early grilling demand. The jump in the wholesale means packers are probably going to have to pay up again this week. Last week packers were buying cash cattle at $138, up $2 from the previous week.
April lean hog’s future’s premium to the lean hog index pressured the contract but the strength in cattle supported the deferred months. Tuesday morning’s average cash price in Iowa/Minnesota rose 43 cents per cwt from Monday to $64.17.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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