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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Police continue to hunt for a suspect who fled from the scene of the Belgian airport and metro station attacks which left 30 people dead. The Belgian premier urges the nation to stay united after the barbaric attacks.

Stocks and crude oil regained most of early session losses.

Corn

Corn struggles to hold on to early strength; caught between the large fund short position and farmer selling of rallies.
Anticipation of larger planted acres, plentiful carry-out supplies and expectations of open planting in April limited corn’s ability to get through the resistance area corn closed at today.
The large short fund position continues to provide support to the market, but has not yet found a spark to send the funds running.
May stopped today right at trendline resistance after the highest close in 21 sessions.

Soybeans

Soybeans lead price today with soybeans trading to three month highs.
Soybeans extended recent gains, despite farmer selling, on continued strength in the soy oil market and continued fund buying. Open interest grew to the largest level in a month, showing continued addition of long positions by funds as the correction in the US dollar / Brazil real currency correction as well as continued expectation for lower planted soybean acres and weather models showing risk of dryer/warmer August outlook.
Funds were reportedly buyers of 10,000 soybean contracts today.
The May contract garnered its first close above the 200 day moving average since August of 2015. If fund buying can extend gains, May contract targets will be 9.17, 9.29 and 9.47 – May closed today at 9.10 ¼. Today’s high of 9.14 will provide initial upside resistance.

Wheat

Wheat balances frost damage with plentiful global supplies.
Wheat found support for the second day in a row on uncertainty over frost damage in the western Plains. Recent information shows around 20 percent of the area in Kansas affected by the cold weather in the jointing stage. True extent of the damage won’t be known for some time.
Ethiopia announced they are tendering for nearly 500,000 mt of wheat.
Price has been supported by the large fund short position. The wheat markets generally ended where they started their day in the middle of the trading range as bulls and bears couldn’t decide on direction.

Livestock

Cold Storage report out today from the USDA.
Beef stocks came in below expectations in the cold storage report as of Feb 29 at 490.57 mln lbs compared to the expected 509.3 mln lbs. Pork stocks came in at 628.3 mln lbs, above January but below the market expectation of 683.5 mln lbs.
April cattle extended recent losses but found selling exhaustion at trendline support on anticipation of the Cold Storage report. April live cattle futures lost -$1.925 while April feeders shed -$1.125.
Hogs reversed much of yesterday’s losses with June gaining $1.00 back of yesterday’s loss of -$2.05.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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