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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

No grain or livestock trade tomorrow. Our offices will be closed in observance of Good Friday.

Corn

Corn back to the 3.70 mark, finishing toward the top of the recent trading range.
Corn as of late has been able to recover from early session losses as the large fund position provides buying support under the market (just not rally fuel).
Export sales came in the trade expectation area at 31.8 mln bushels.
Planting has made progress in TX and some rare pockets in places like Southern Illinois – but in general the southern progress has and will continue to be impeded by the additional rainfall.
CFTC position on funds will be out tomorrow afternoon – the government is working even though the markets aren’t trading.
Funds were estimated as buyers of 5,000 contracts, but maintain a significant short position.
The market will be readying for the Thursday Quarterly Stocks and the March Planting Intentions report Thursday. Corn needs to get itself above 3.73 1/2 for the next leg higher on spring uncertainty – 3.85 to 3.90 should offer significant resistance to the May contract.

Soybeans

Funds continue buying in soybeans to finish the week.
Short covering in soybean meal on signs of better-than-expected demand spilled over to the soybeans to continue the March rally to the highest close for the year in soybeans.
Soybean oil closed lower, but well off its session lows on continued concern over global veg oil supplies.
Next week will be spent in preparation for the Quarterly Stocks and the Planting Intentions report Thursday. Behavior of price in the bean market looks to reflect the concern of continued loss of planted acres in the US for 2016.
Funds were reportedly buyers of 6,500 contracts of soybeans.
USDA export sales for soybeans came in within the trade expectations at 15.1 mln bushels while soy meal exports were double the trade expectations (the largest weekly soy meal sales in 13 years).
The soybean market made its way into rare air (for the last few months anyway). The May contract will run into resistance above the market in the 9.17 to 9.29 area – May closed today at 9.10 ½.

Wheat

Wheat regains early session losses going into the three day weekend.
The market is continuing to try to determine the impact of the recent cold weather damage in the western plains. While it’s likely the damage will be real for affected areas that were jointing, the good wheat condition ratings and plentiful supplies continue to buffer strength for now in the wheat complex.
Wheat export sales came in at the high end of trade expectations at 13.6 mln bushels.
Egypt’s GASC announced they had bought a total of 60,000 mt of French origin wheat, paying an average of $189.20/mt cif.

Livestock

Cattle stem recent losses ahead of three day weekend while deferred hogs drop ahead of Hog & Pig report tomorrow.
In Kansas, cash cattle traded at $136 per cwt, down from around $139 a week ago.
This morning’s wholesale choice beef price fell 65 cents while select continued higher by 71 cents.
Jitters in the hog futures ahead the Hog & Pig report out tomorrow afternoon (remember, the government is working) and the market anticipates it to reflect the ongoing expansion in the hog market. The June lean hog contract lost -$1.925 for the day and -$3.05 for the week.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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