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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Corn

Corn higher for the fifth day on bull spreading over commercial demand and doubt over the likelihood of planting the USDA acre estimation.
Corn found support for the fifth day in a row as export business continues to come to the market while commercials are working to get nearby ownership as farmers continue their reluctance to sell aggressively at these levels.
USDA export sales this morning showed corn at 37.2 mln bushels, the middle of the expected range.
A quick piece of longer term global corn fundamental news came from China’s comment that they will aim to reduce corn plantings by about 8.2 mln acres by 2020 and work to boost output of crops like soybeans and potatoes.
CFTC fund position info tomorrow afternoon will give an indication of the money flow and positions post-USDA report by speculative money.
May futures have essentially rallied back to the place they were trading prior to the release of the USDA report – if we can finish well tomorrow the weekly chart will actually look pretty good for corn.

Soybeans

Soybeans trade lower on anticipation of regaining planted acres for 2016.
Soybeans traded lower on thoughts the crop may recover some planted acres from corn after nearing two year highs for the new crop contracts. Stalling of the soy oil rally added to the tepidness of the soy market.
Export sales came within the expected range at 15.4 mln bushels.

Wheat

Wheat lower for fourth session on weak exports and hope for upcoming Plains moisture.
Poor exports, good winter wheat condition ratings and the expectation of relief moisture soon for the Plains continued the pressure on the wheat complex.
Wheat export sales came in below trade expectations with a net reduction of 2.1 mln bushels for this marketing year and added 5.9 mln for next year.
Egypt’s GASC said it bought 60,000 tonnes of French wheat in a tender.
With all the bearish news, I guess wheat is holding up as well as can be expected for now but that isn’t saying much. For Kansas City which has been leading the weakness, the 4.40 to 4.46 are looks to be support area.

Livestock

Cattle trade both red and green but finish higher while hogs lose nearby to deferred months on soft wholesale prices.
Packers are reportedly working hard to offer incentives for cattle that can be delivered this week showing the packer is short bought. Some cattle traded in the south at $133 yesterday. A small number of cash cattle in Nebraska moved at $135 to $136 per cwt – steady with last week’s sales in the state.
Seasonally April is the time for spring highs for fed cattle but the cooler than expected weather may delay the grilling season demand. The final spring rally may yet be in the cards.
Deferred months are struggling more in the cattle months.
In hogs, traders bought deferred months while selling April futures ahead of the April 14th expiration. Cash price uncertainty and soft wholesale pork values further pressured the April hog contract.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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