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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Corn market continues to try and find a place to support while the funds run for the door ahead of the report on the 30th.  Expected rains through Iowa, Illinois and Indiana seem to be as advertised giving good coverage to areas that hadn’t had significant rain for a while.  Latest USDA attaché has Brazil corn output at 75 mln mt.  That would be 2.2 mln mt below the official USDA forecast.  Soon the market will turn its attention to estimates for the upcoming USDA June 30th report.

Soybeans maintained the bounce off the lows from the overnight.  Gulf basis bids have firmed which suggests active exports.  The USDA confirmed sales today of 66 tmt of old crop beans and 60 tmt new crop beans to unknown destinations along with 132 tmt new crop beans to China.  Soybeans have not had as negative of a reaction to the change in forecast as corn.  One reason may be the August forecast still remains hot and dry.  Also export interest is strong and expected to continue.

Wheat is confirming expected large yields in the Midwest as harvest yields continue to impress. UkrAgroConsult raised estimates for the Ukraine upcoming wheat crop up 1.3 MMT to 23.3 MMT.  They also expect Ukraine to export 2 MMT more wheat up to a total of 13.5 MMT.  France and Germany’s wheat crop expectations continue to be cut by analysts because of excessive rains and cool temperatures.

Live Cattle closed positive on the day with very indecisive action. Show lists continue to get larger.  Weekly slaughter last week was at 607,000 head. This is the largest slaughter number for 2 years.  Carcass weights are reported tomorrow and will be closely watched as we move forward.  The last report had carcass weights up 4#.  This is just 2# under last year.

Hogs gave back a lot of its gains today down 2.625.  Demand from China has been the main source of support for the rally.  This hasn’t changed but the market may have decided that has been priced in for now.  Funds may just be taking profits before month end and quarter end.  Demand to China will remain closely watched to see if we can keep up with supply of 3rd quarter.

Closing Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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