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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments

Corn settled the day in mixed fashion after trying to put in a rally after the morning session had opened up about .05 higher.  Limiting gains were the crude oil trading more than a $1 lower all day, the US dollar on another push higher and wheat trading quite a bit lower.  The soybean complex trading higher along with an expectation to decrease Good to Excellent categories by 2% in this afternoon’s crop conditions report offered support.  The actual numbers showed an increase in the Excellent category from the Good and unchanged number overall and will be negative to the market in the overnight session.  The current forecast looks to warm up again after 6 days or so and does not offer much for moisture. So that could have the market looking for some bargain buying in the short term and ahead of the acres report.  Export inspections were better than expected and continues to show more demand showing up. 

Soybeans put in a complete reversal bar on the charts after rains were somewhat disappointing for areas that were expected to get more than they did.  August forecast also continue to show above average temperatures and possible below average moisture.  Another private sale of 5.5 mln bushels of soybeans reported this morning to unknown destination helped re-affirm strong export demand remains in the form of sales, but this weeks export inspections were a little below expectations.  Soybean were expected to decline by a percentage point this afternoon in the crop conditions report and did confirm that.

All Wheat classes closed considerably lower, with Minneapolis down the most.  Good export inspections showed a good round of shipments, but offered little help to prices today.  It seems the US dollar rising is affecting this grain the most over the last couple of trading sessions, given the surplus already in world supplies and in the middle/beginning of harvest.  Winter wheat conditions showed an improvement of 1%, while harvest progress of an increase of 20% was seen from last week.

Given the first chance to price in Friday’s Cattle on Feed, they traded a little higher right off the bat and mostly sideways thereafter.  Cattle continuing to trade toward the bottom end of the recent range carry the most concern in the short term. 

Hogs opened a lot lower this morning but found some bargain buying (finally) throughout the day and mainly in the deferred contracts.  October and November opened up almost limit down but rallied off of swing lows and make for some interesting action over the next couple of days.

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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