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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments

Corn finished the day about ½ cent away from its highs.  Midday weather model runs had the long term forecast drier than previously expected.  Weekend rains were widespread in the northern plains and western Midwest.  Southern Minnesota and Iowa had the best rains with mainly over 2 inches. This had the market weak to start off the morning.  Corn export inspections today came in at 1.327 mln metric tons.  The market expected 1.20 mln metric tons.  Traders are trying to assess what damage could come from a period of hot temperatures.  The trade feels that most areas have seen the moisture it would need to get through a short period of hot temps but if it is a longer time frame and if rain subsides from this point on they must try and predict what kind of damage this could do. 

Soybeans had a big turnaround today.  Coming from double digit losses to start the day to be higher by double digits at one point and closing .09 higher vs. November.  The drier forecast is even more significant for beans.  They will need some finishing moisture in August to ensure a good crop.  Soybeans had a .36 cent trading range today.   Export inspections came in at 367,380 metric tons, 325,000 metric tons was expected.  Export pace is currently at 105.8% of the USDA forecast.  That is about .035% higher than normal.  This could eventually have exports revised 60 million bu. higher if the pace keeps up.  If that is the case the current carryout would slip to 230 million bu. 

Wheat closed the day up .06 cents and was positive the majority of the day.  Traders increased their net short position last week by 8,787 contracts to 102,444 contracts on continued harvest pressure.  Wheat export inspections came in at 439,484 metric tons vs. expected 400,000 metric tons.  Egypt was a buyer twice in four days.  Harvest is coming to an end for the most part and yields have been amazing but protein quality has been poor.  Wheat seasonally has a rebound postharvest.

Cattle futures closed higher today even though the cash trend continues lower.  Cash was off about $3.00 last week.  Cash is still about a $6 premium to the futures market.  Beef production for the week was up about 8.3% from last year to 482.9 million pounds.  In spite of the large production box beef prices remain stable. 

Pork closed lower again on the day today.  That would make 10 sessions in a row of lower prices.  Downward trending cash and sluggish demand continue to weigh on the market.  It is oversold at the moment and may need to find a spot to at least correct in time if not price. 

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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