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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments

Corn dipped on continued big crop expectations and reluctance for end users to step up just yet. Export sales for corn came in within trade expectations, with 1.059 mln mt for 16/17. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine corn harvest 93% complete which is helping to replenish exporter supply and is moving the Argentine FOB prices closer to US offers. The Pro Farmer tour will release their tour estimates for Iowa and MN tonight and will provide their adjusted state by state and final yield tomorrow morning. Trends are looking supportive for the eastern part of Iowa on tour reports while western Iowa and Minnesota look to have a bit more variability. General theme so far seems to be “good crop, but it’s no 2014.” December corn support below the market will be at 3.30. Weekly corn chart is in an oversold condition while the daily is coming out of its overbought zone.  


Soybeans declined the entire session off pressure from the over-bought soybean oil and weak trade in meal. Excellent export sales for 16/17 soybeans at 1.939 mln mt, well above trade expectations – but most of the business is for new crop, reminding the market that maybe the nearby demand is taken care of for now. The trade continues to see the rains as beneficial for grain fill, however many areas in the central belt are citing continued development of disease and that continued rains becoming detrimental to yield. November soybeans broke the trendline support it had been trading above and how will look for support at today’s low and the report day low of 9.62.


Wheat traded lower across the complex, but was generally supported in narrow trading today as the current large short positions by funds and the competitive position of US prices for export make traders reluctant to be aggressive sellers. Wheat export sales were just below the low end of expectations showing 379,700 mt for 16/17. Dec Chicago wheat was able to put in a new low close while KC continued to hold above trendline support.


Cattle inched lowers today on softer cash values and the expectation for further declines next week. So far, cash cattle in the Plains have sold $2 to $3 lower than last week. Processors are reluctant to pay up for supplies on the expectation of weaker wholesale demand. October still has the open chart gap at $108 just under the market.


Hogs were lower on weaker cash prices and lower wholesale pork values. Ample supplies continue to cap any strength. Peoria hogs were reported trading steady at $37.

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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