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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments

US dollar traded lower and equities higher following yesterday’s Fed decision to punt on a rate increase. Crude was higher on the inventory drawdown in yesterday’s EIA report.


Corn fell on a return of fund selling and a pick-up of harvest progress in the eastern belt. Export sales for corn were at the upper end of the expectation at 921,900 mt but Argentina and the Black Sea continue to work to compete for exports. Rains are slowing progress in many western and northern regions. Good yield reports in central IL and eastern IA being balanced by disappointments further east and pockets of severe ear rot. Gulf basis steady to weaker as new crop harvest supplies work south. Overhead resistance continues to reject corn price, look for trade above 3.42 as a signal of tone change in the market.


Soybeans were supported for most of today’s session on stronger crude oil markets, continued Chinese buying and weather anxieties for the north and western regions that have been so inundated recently by rain. USDA reported a daily sale of 120k mt of soybeans to China and a 151k mt sale to unknown. Soybean export sales came in just below trade expectations at 875,700 mt. Soybean oil fundamentals are providing support to the bean price for now as more widespread soy harvest is expected to continue to big supplies to the market.


Wheat was mixed with Chicago and KC lower but Minneapolis higher today. Russia confirmed they would be reducing their export duty to zero starting tomorrow. Export sales for wheat were a respectable 561,000 mt, just above the highest trade estimate. Egypt received four offers on their tender after finally amending their ergot fungus requirements. December Minneapolis, now back over $5.00, had its highest close in 18 sessions.


Cattle were lower on profit-taking and fear of lower cash trade this week. Bids are standing at $108 vs $115 asking prices. Last week cash cattle traded at $110. China has conditionally lifted an import ban on some shipments of US boneless beef and beef on the bone. Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage will be out tomorrow afternoon.


Hogs found some support from bargain buyers today. Supplies continue to weigh on the cash markets despite big slaughter rates and profitable packer margins. Grocers are in the process of nearly completing their coverage for the upcoming October National Pork Month.

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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