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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments

Corn looks to be awaiting more harvest data and any possible changes in the quarterly stocks report tomorrow.  Rarely does this report offer much of a surprise

(20% of the time?), but does produce large moves when it does.  Expected carry in is estimated around 1.754 billion bushels and very comparable to last year.  With carryout expected to grow close to 2.0 billion bushels, the market will be patient on any rallies.  The large speculative funds are heavily short already though and could look to even up some ahead of the October report.


Soybeans rallied back toward 9.50 in the November contract today.  Strong export sales this morning and also new announced private sale to China helped bring some support.  The Quarterly stocks report tomorrow could be show an increase demand and a tighter carry in, but would also be offset by a larger crop that is being reported from the fields.  The bottom line is that demand is very strong and there is a huge soybean crop being harvested, so expect prices to stay range bound until one of these parameters change.    


Wheat shifted to taking some profits from the week rally as in went in to the close and ahead of the quarterly stocks report that is expected to show a carry out of 2.402 billion bushels vs. 2.097 at this time last year.  Australia wheat output maybe at risk going into the end of the year as they are expected to see much larger than normal rainfall on the east coast.  Australia is the world’s no. 4 exporter of wheat.


Cattle maintained the thoughts of a possible double bottom in the fat markets and the feeder market was generally quiet overall as well.  Cattle continuing to find production levels are exceeding slaughter capacities and unable to move the products fast enough. 


Hogs stalled out today and put in a modest positive rebound.  The markets in general still look like possible lower prices still could come and could find new news in tomorrow’s hogs & pigs report.    Analysts are forecasting all hogs and pigs at 101% of the year earlier level.  They are estimating those kept for breeding at 101% of year ago level, and those kept for marketing at 101% also.

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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