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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments

Corn fell on technical selling but recovered off the daily lows to close above support. Corn export sales for came in well above the trade expectations; 2.068 mt were reported for 16/17 marketing year. This was the largest since September of last year. The sales pace on corn is running 87% above last year. Notes out of Brazil are that the country’s biotech panel approved US GMO corn varieties for import. Brazil’s CONAB is estimating 83 mln mt of corn production but much of that potential will be determined by their Apr/May weather. Wet weather overnight and today in many Midwest areas but mild weather is forecast for much of October. Technically today’s pull-back in corn was allowable and closed above the trendline resistance that was taken out on Monday.


Soybeans saw mixed trade from lower soy meal and higher soy oil trade today but managed to close higher on the day. Trade was expecting 1.2-1.5 mln mt for export sales and received 2.179 mln mt. Excellent yields continue to be reported across the Midwest leading many in the trade to expect a bump in next week’s Oct 12th S/D report. Despite the huge supply, futures are continuing to struggle to find coordinated selling. November beans continue to trade inside the consolidation wedge – still non-directional trade, awaiting new imbalance between buyers and sellers.


Wheat dropped on disappointing export sales and fund selling, however spring wheat was able to mostly resist the weakness as compared to the winter wheats. Spring wheat continues to be in demand for milling quality. Wheat export sales were a disappointing 377,000 mt vs the expectation of 450k-700k.


Cattle traded mixed. Market has been tuned into the cash cattle trade. The bulk for sale are around $105 but some in the Southern Plains have traded at $102. Beef exports have been promising with the last four week average running 29% higher than the prior year.


Hogs gapped higher and continued to develop strength on technical recovery trying to come out of its oversold condition.

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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