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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments

In Corn,  prices were supported by another round of strong weekly export sales.  Prices are trying to redefine the bottom end of the range to around the 3.38 area Dec.  Coming into focus, is more talk about corn losing acres to soybeans.  Currently the price ration between the two is at $2.62 in favor of soybeans.  This time last year, was at 2.25.  Informa decreased their Corn Acreage outlook to 90.84 mln acres from 90.97 mln previously.  Drought monitor continues to expand in the south and other areas of Illinois and Iowa, so this end of the week/weekend storm systems will be closely watched. 


Soybeans closed higher today, along with the other grains.  Are prices to cheap even with a stronger dollar and what looks like plentiful supplies?  Demand remains strong despite both and is the current debate.  Bids at the Gulf had slipped a little today.  Informa increased their Soybean Acreage outlook to 88.61 mln acres from 88.49 mln previously.


Wheat was benefited a general higher commodity market and the fact that thought drought monitor continues to expand into areas of Southern Illinois and Nebraska, while conditions worsen in Kansas, Missouri, and Delta states.  Kansas and Chicago markets bounced off of the bottom end of the ranges they have been pushing the last week.  Informa had lowered their Winter Wheat Acreage outlook to 33.76 mln acres from 35.42 previously.


Cattle were higher again in the live markets and closed at their highest level since late August.  The cattle on feed report is due out on Friday and traders are looking for a rare year-over-year decline in “on feed” inventory to shake things up, forecasts are running at 99%.  The expectation is October cattle on feed placements at 96% and marketings up to 105% of levels last year.  Feeder markets were a little lower in the front months, but the momentum has not changed and charts look like there could be at least a little more of a push.


Hogs failed to push through the recent top end of the range today, and have been really choppy last 2 weeks.  Moving averages have been catching up with the sideways trade and could force the technical traders to establish stronger positions depending on which side prices fall.


Closing Market Snapshot



All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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