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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments


Corn couldn’t hold on to overnight trade strength with December settling ¼ at 4.11 ½. The trade anxiety crept back in around Chinese tariff targets (pork and ethanol) and President Trump’s comments on NAFTA and relating it to boarder funding. Weather outlook for a cool/wet April is keeping support under the market amid the lower acreage expectation posted by last Thursday’s report. Weekly corn export inspections came in above expectations. 18/19 marketing year carryout expectations are creeping toward the sub-1.6 bln bu area, providing a supportive environment for the next several weeks.


Soybeans came under hedge and profit taking pressure in the day session closing -7 ¾ in November as trade battle concerns overtook last Thursday’s acreage surprise. Currently China has a 13% tariff on imported soybeans but the market will be watching for adjustments up for retaliation. Weekly USDA soybean inspections came in above expectations. 


Wheat was mixed with Chicago -5, KC and Minneapolis -4 ¾ in Sept.  Minneapolis continued to struggle with last week’s acreage expectation however the April weather outlook does not look cooperative for Spring Wheat planting progress. The drought continues over the plains with some relief in forecasts for KS but no for OK or TX. Weekly USDA wheat inspections came in over expectations. The first official wheat crop condition ratings will be out this afternoon. The trade is expecting close to 35% G/E vs 59% last year.


Live Cattle gave up early session strength with June finishing -1.625. What looks to be a late start to the grilling season is not helping domestic demand in beef and pork. COT info shows funds have liquidated over 51k contracts in the last four weeks. The most in that timeframe since 2015. 


Hogs succumbed to Chinese tariff concerns with April -2.975 and June -3.000. Thursday’s Hog & Pig report reaffirms the pace of production. IA/MN weights are coming in 3.9 lbs heavier than a year ago. The expansion of production and packing needs access to foreign markets, for now the headwinds are strong.


Closing Market Snapshot  


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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