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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

 

Corn prices closed just slightly lower on the day. Corn continues to be one of the more stable commodities in the grain complex. Trade fears started corn lower but it has hung in well against the unknowns. The time of year is very helpful against the trade unknowns as we have really cut into expected carryout the last couple of months and don’t have a seed in the ground yet. The trade conversation may not be over quickly so will corn turn its focus to production and the poor forecast because of the time of year? The ability for the market to continue to come back from these overnight concerns is a good sign.

 

Soybeans take the brunt of the trade war conversation. Yesterday there was a lot of talk that negotiations were progressing well and then yesterday evening a fallout when Trump commented on upping the tariffs from 50 billion to 100 billion. China followed up with some very aggressive comments which began the night session negatively and continued through the morning. Trade wants to stay long as we can see from the last couple of sessions before today but their stamina will depend on the direction of negotiations. The Buenos Aires Exchange lowered Argentine production to 38 MMT. Harvest is seen at 15.3% complete. More sales this morning to unknown destinations and Mexico. Unknown is most likely China trying to front run any possible tariffs.

 

Wheat is getting pulled around by the volatility of the trade war conversation even though they have a much larger impact for the corn and soybean markets. Weather through this weekend with freezing temps will continue to stress already poor crop conditions. Drought monitor yesterday showed 38% of winter wheat areas in some sort of drought condition. Texas and Oklahoma were unchanged but Kansas and Oklahoma saw the drought worsen.

 

Live Cattle are oversold but trade war talk is keeping them on the defensive. Boxed beef values were down 3.08 yesterday to 215.09 down from 221 the previous week. Dressed steer weights went up a 1lb which is seen as bearish because weights usually drop this time of year. Export pace is up 16.7% from last year.

 

Hogs are oversold but there isn’t much positive news out there to point towards. Exports are about 6.8% above last year’s pace but weights are higher and we have our lowest pork values since December 2015.

 

Closing Market Snapshot  

 

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