Home Market Market Watch Closing Comments

Closing Comments



Closing Comments


Corn finished lower for the second day in a row with the final full day of trade before the end of the year. Quite news in the market today. Weakness in wheat seemed to spill into the corn – contributing to added pressure as the session progressed.

In South America, the crop watcher Cordonnier increased his corn estimate for the continent to 99 mmt, which would be above the 94 mmt harvest last year.

CFTC will release commitment of trader information tonight (typically released on Fridays) with the market expecting fund length to be near 190,000.

Corn finished the day off 6 ¼ cents at 4.06 ½ in the March contract while December ’15 lost 6 cents to close at 4.30 ¾.  


Mixed day in soybeans after yesterday’s posting of six week highs which was followed by selling pressure into yesterday’s close. Weakness first in the January meal contract followed by the deferred contracts added to the soft soy trade in the afternoon session.

Light news on holiday trade with weather in South America continuing to be a non-event for bullish news.

Rail and truck meal basis are reported to be weakening between $3 and $20. While yesterday the board crush put in the highest margin since November 12th – it was followed by a sell off today of more than 20 cents from the $1.60 peak yesterday. In addition to weakness in basis and crush margin, the meal calendar spreads weakened today after an eight day run up.

The 2015 corn/soybean ratio is currently at 2.37 compared to 2.57 August 15th.

Soybeans closed January down 4 cents at 10.37 ¾ and November 2015 lower by 3 ¼ at 10.21 ¼.


Wheat seems to have put its Russian concerns aside for now and has shifted back to the reality of plentiful global supplies and concern over lack of competitiveness of US wheat.

The concern over the cold weather coming into the plains appear to be less alarming than the market originally believed.

Chicago March is holding just above the $6.00 support area but did manage to close just below a trend line from November lows and December lows. If the bulls want to take a stand, they will need to do it quickly as we decisively closed below last week’s low and put in a two week new low close.

Chicago March closed down 13 ½ at 6.02, KC March was off 11 ½ cents at 6.36 and March Minneapolis held up the best, closing 8 ¼ lower at 6.29.


December futures expire tomorrow. Midday boxed beef higher, choice 245.86 +1.16, select 236.58 +.07. Cash bids posted at 162 for live in Kansas with 166 ask.

Strong cash market and cold, somewhat wet two-week forecast in the central plains is helping cattle hold their recent strength. Packers and wholesalers appear to be somewhat short bought the market.

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending December 18th came it at 7,000 tonnes with the average of the prior four weeks at 9,950.

Feb live cattle are currently trading .250 higher at 165.250 while Jan Feeders are trading 1.225 higher at 218.675.


Weights are high and with the slower slaughter schedule packers to have short-term needs covered. Strength in cattle and colder forecasts have provided support to the hogs recently but gains from the recent couple sessions seem to be giving way to weakness today.

As of this publication Feb hogs are .525 lower at 81.275 while June is .375 lower at 91.150.

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




or 1-866-249-2528